從經濟發展路徑探討電力之於我國的意義

Correlation between electric power and economic development in Taiwan

陳中舜(Jong-Shun Chen)

指導教授 ： 毛慶生

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/經濟學研究所/碩士(2014年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2014.02216

摘要

從1991年環境庫茲奈曲線（EKC）首次被Grossman與Krueger提出後，即開啟了環境壓力與經濟成長相依性討論之先河。而後十數年間，由於全球氣候變遷的惡化情形更行顯著，EKC的研究逐漸被聚焦於人均CO2與人均GDP關係的探討上。然因各國國情差異甚大且受到諸如國際貿易、技術能力、推動政策、發展時間、計量條件等諸多因素的影響，對於EKC假說是否成立，各方說法莫衷一是。
本研究採用了發展經濟學（Development economics）的觀點，把『人口』視成一國經濟規模與產業結構的制約條件，並優先將人口超過1000萬且人均GDP超過10,000美元的國家萃析出來。根據IEA全球統計資料的138國家中，2011年時能滿足上述條件的共計18個國家（含台灣），這其中2/3國家有現役操作中的核電機組。若將範圍縮小至人均GDP 達到30,000美金的國家，其中核能國家佔比提高至8/9，且有6個國家的EKC曲線可被觀察到明顯的倒U現象
再以能源經濟的觀點，分組闡述18個代表國因社經背景與能源/核能策略差異所導致的影響，並針對台灣以多因素生產力(Multifactor Productivity，簡稱MFP)法，探討電力供需之問題。結果得知：國家民主程度、市場開放與否、自主能源（含核能）佔比，皆是支撐人口超過千萬國家能否持續發展的關鍵。
對於政策意涵上，由於我國缺乏自主能源，故中、短期內仍需依靠核電作為穩定電源供給與發展經濟之基礎，此有賴於一個更有權力與公信力的獨立核安管制機構之建立。中、長期而言，我國必須從放鬆電價管制做起，不僅要讓電力反映真實內外部成本，亦可以引導資源被最有效利用，進而促進產業升級。

關鍵字

環境庫茲奈曲線 ； 多因素生產力 ； 自主能源佔比 ； 電力供需 ； 核能

並列摘要

Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) which discusses the dependence between environmental pressure and economic growth is pioneered by Grossman and Krueger in 1991. After that, more significant deterioration of global climate change can be observed, hence, the research of EKC is transferred to the correlation between per capita GDP and CO2 emissions per capita. Due to the great different situations of various countries and the impact from international trade, technical capacity, policy execution, development history and measurement conditions, there are many comments about the accuracy of EKC hypothesis.
To simplify analytical model, this study is based on the view of development economics, and take ‘population’ as a constraint of a country’s economic scale and industrial structure. The countries with more than ten million populations and more than 10,000 GDP per capita are chosen for further analysis. There are 18 countries (including Taiwan) satisfied above conditions in 2011 from the IEA global statistics, and the 2/3 countries have commercially operating nuclear power plants. Focus on the countries with more than 30,000 GDP per capita, there are 8/9 countries with commercially operating nuclear power plants, and significant inverted U-shaped curves can be observed in which 6 countries.
Furthermore, this study describes the effects of socioeconomic background, energy strategy and nuclear strategy for the 18 representative countries from the point of energy economic. Especially for Taiwan, multifactor productivity (MFP) method is utilized to find the difficulties currently encountered in our country and to seek solutions. From the analytical results, we know that national democratic extent, markets open or not and independent of energy (including nuclear energy) proportion are key factors for a country with more than ten million populations to keep sustainable development.

並列關鍵字

EKC ； MFP ； nuclear energy ； GDP ； independent of energy

參考文獻

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