匯率變動、進口與出口：以臺灣出口至中國大陸、日本及美國為例

Exchange Rate,Import and Export：Evidence from Taiwan's Export to China,Japan and USA.

黃尹蓁(Yin-Zhen Huang)

指導教授 ： 謝德宗

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/經濟學研究所/碩士(2016年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU201600134

摘要

本文研究目的在於探討匯率貶值是否真的可以有利臺灣出口？一般而言，匯率貶值有利出口、匯率升值不利出口。匯率貶值或許對出口有幫助，但產品的價值本身不能提升，匯率只能解決短暫的問題，僅為政府救急短期措施。當國際上競爭對手國貨幣競相貶值，最後還是會影響國內產品出口競爭力。
為探討匯率貶值對出口影響，本文藉由傳統出口模型進行探討，並納入進口因素於出口模型中。透過自我迴歸分配落後 (autoregressive distributed lag, ARDL) 模型設定，藉以分析匯率變動對臺灣出口變動影響。本研究實證結果說明影響臺灣出口貿易變動因素，除匯率變動外，進口貿易變動亦有一定影響力。

關鍵字

匯率貶值 ； 出口模型 ； 自我迴歸分配落後 (autoregressive distributed lag, ARDL) 模型 ； 匯率變動 ； 出口貿易變動 ； 進口貿易變動

並列摘要

The purpose of this study is to discuss whether the exchange rate depreciation can really be helpful for Taiwan's exports? In general, the depreciation of exchange rate is helpful for exports while the appreciation of exchange rate is not helpful for exports. Exchange rate depreciation may be helpful for exports, but if the value of the products can not be improved,the exchange rate just can be use to solve short-term problems, and only be a short-term emergency measure of the government. As international competitors devaluate their national currency competitively, at last it will affect the export competitiveness of domestic products.
To investgate the impact of exchange rate depreciation on exports,this paper discusses through traditional exports model, and puts the import factor into the export model.By setting specifications into the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model,we analyze how the impact of exchange rate changes affect on Taiwan's export changes.The empirical results of this paper show that the factors of Taiwan's export trade changes,one is exchange rate changes, the other is import trade changes that also have a certain influence on.

並列關鍵字

exchange rate depreciation ； export model ； autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model ； exchange rate changes ； export trade changes ； import trade changes

參考文獻

方文碩、張倉耀、葉志權(2005),"匯率貶值及其風險與出口",《經濟研究》,41(4),105-139。

黃韻禎(2006), "匯率波動對貿易進出口影響之實證研究",政治大學國際貿易研究所學位論文。

趙蒼頡(2006),"匯率波動對台灣出口量的影響:以新加坡和泰國為例",臺灣大學國際企業學研究所學位論文。

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De Vita, Glauco, Abbott, Andrew, et al. (2004), "Real exchange rate volatility and US exports: an ARDL bounds testing approach",Economic Issues,9(1),69-78.