中國崛起了嗎:近年學術界相關論徵文獻之剖析

Has China Risen Yet:The Analysis of Relevant Literature，2001 to 2014

莊秀美(Hsiu-Mei Chuang)

指導教授 ： 明居正

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/政治學研究所/碩士(2014年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2014.02282

摘要

本研究以「中國崛起了嗎？」為題，做相關論爭文獻的剖析。在認定中國已經崛起的文獻中有「中國威脅論」和「中國和平崛起論」，在「中國威脅論」中本研究聚焦於中國崛起對美國的威脅和挑戰，其中又分為經濟威脅、政治威脅和價值威脅。在「中國和平崛起論」中探討了中國提出「和平崛起」的戰略意涵以及伴隨「和平崛起」而來的相關論述和應和「和平崛起論」的相關代表作，最後探討了伴隨「和平崛起論」的「中國模式」和「北京共識」。在「中國尚未崛起」的部分則將相關文獻分門別類為「改革失敗論」、「文化制約論」和「崩潰論」。

論證中國已經崛起而且會是一個威脅的大部分是美國的學者，而認為中國已經崛起而且是和平崛起的大部分是中國的學者。這就形成了美國深感威脅的「中國威脅論」與中國拼命解釋與保證的「中國和平崛起論」。世界各國對「中國崛起」的感覺，首先來自於中國商品的無處不在、中國投資的全球化擴張，以及中國人在世界各地的足跡和影響。在肯定中國已經崛起的作品中，大部分是著眼於中國的經濟發展成就和中國領導人在國際舞台上的外交行為。從能力角度出發的都是著眼於中國經濟發展的速度和手段，大部分是研究經濟學的學者，而從戰略意圖來評估中國崛起對美國的挑戰和威脅的大部分是研究中國外交政策和外交行為的國際關係領域學者。

「中國和平崛起論」的提出當然是為因應國際間日益高漲的「中國威脅論」，中國信誓旦旦地宣稱中國崛起之後不會稱霸也不會爭霸，因為中國有愛好和平的傳統。「和平崛起」是中國的一個大戰略，是為了爭取一個國際間的和平環境來繼續發展國內的經濟的大戰略，「和平崛起」的說法也挑戰了西方的國際關係理論。而伴隨「中國崛起」之後登上國際輿論的是「北京共識」和「中國模式」，但「北京共識」的共識是甚麼以及「中國模式」是否存在，都仍在眾說紛紜中。

在認定「中國尚未崛起」的文獻中呈現出中國因經濟高速發展所引發的種種社會弊端和中共堅持一黨專政的內政治理困境。較一致的共識是中共的一黨專政，不僅違反了民主自由的普世價值，也違反了共產黨當初追求人民民主的社會主義核心價值，因此中共不僅是改革失敗而且背離當初的革命理想。更具體的論證是指出中國高速的經濟成長率是一種不健康的經濟結構使然，是在低人權的優勢下剝削了中國的農民工所致，是一種帶血的GDP。因為中國的人均所得仍低，社會保障體系不完整，使得連續三年在聯合國人類發展指數的排名下降到第101名。「新聞自由指數」更是名列世界倒數第六位，人民的幸福感因而逐年在下降。

金融的崩潰是最早被預言的，而經濟崩盤的傳言也時有耳聞，雪上加霜的是國內腐敗分子向境外轉移資產，富豪也在加速移民，裸官通過貪腐行為輸送利益給住在國外的家人，因此中國經濟危機已處於無解狀態。再加上軟實力的欠缺和意識型態的匱乏讓整個國家缺乏核心價值，人們對制度和法律產生嚴重的不信任，宗教信仰喪失殆盡，整個文化面臨徹底崩潰的可能。

但為什麼中國至今還沒有崩潰？中共也沒有瓦解？ 中國的國家資本主義讓中國政府擁有超強的調控和風險轉移能力是受西方教育的學者所無法理解的，國內的反對力量沒有組織串連，中共的剛性維穩以及政績的合法性和根深蒂固的民族主義都是重要原因；同時跟毛澤東時代比較，人民的生活有很大的改善，加上「沒有力量能取代共產黨」這樣的概念深入人心，知識分子仍肯定共產黨統治的合法性，所以中共政權得以存活至今。

關鍵字

中國崛起 ； 中國威脅 ； 中國和平崛起 ； 中國模式 ； 北京共識 ； 中國崩潰

並列摘要

This study entitled” Has China Risen Yet?” provides the analysis of the relevant debates on the topic of the rise of China. In the literature supporting “China has risen” separated into two theories “China’s Rise as a Threat” and “China’s Peaceful Rise”. In the literature, the "China’s Rise as a Threat” theory in the present study focuses on the threats and challenges of China’s rise to the United States, which are divided into economic threats, political threats and value threats. For those relevant literature backing “China’s Peaceful Rise” explores the strategic implications of "peaceful rise”, “masterpiece” made to explain China’s intension on “peaceful rise”, and two theories “China Model” and “Beijing Consensus” which were made to support China’s peaceful rise. In the literature arguing "China has not yet risen” will be categorized into three theories, "Reform Failure ", "Cultural Constraints Theory" and "Collapse Theory."

For those who assert China has emerged as a threat are mostly American scholars, in the other hand, scholars who see China has peacefully risen are mostly Chinese Scholars, thus generating two opposing arguments. The “China’s Rise as a Threat” theory see China’s rise creates threats and challenges to the US. The “China’s Peaceful Rise” theory in the other way aims to desperately give assurance and explanation to the world. Countries around the world generates the perception of “China’s rise” due to the prevalence of “Made in China” product, the global expansion of Chinese investment, and the influence and footprint of Chinese all over the world. Arguments supporting China’s peaceful rise mostly emphasized China’s economic development and Chinese leaders’ diplomatic achievement in international fields. The arguments were affirmed by scholars in economics, they gauged China’s capability from the perspective of the speed and tactic of economic development. Yet, for those scholars study in Chinese Foreign Policy, Diplomacy and International Relations majorly evaluate China’s rise as the threats and challenges to the US from the strategic point of view.

The theory of “China’s Peaceful Rise” has been raised for confronting against the increasing international backing of “The Rise of China as a Threat” theory. China pledge that it has a peace-loving tradition, thus after the rise of China, it won’t’ be a hegemony nor seek for being hegemony. “Peaceful Rise” is China’s major strategy to strive for a peaceful and stable international environment to continue developing its grand strategy of increase its own domestic development. However, “peaceful rise” argument is also challenged by the Western theories of international relations. After the “Rise of China”, “Beijing Consensus” and “Chinese Model” has been discussed readily among international critics. However, it is still an ongoing debate on the consensus of “Beijing Consensus” and also many different opinions on whether there is an existence of “Chinese Model”.

The literature supporting “China has not risen yet” disclosed various social problems cause by China’s rapid economic development and the internal governance struggles derived from CCP’s one-party dictatorship. One consistent consensus is CCP’s one-party rule is not only against the universal value of democracy and freedom, but also a violation of the core values of people’s democratic socialism that CCP used to pursue, in this way, the CCP is not only fail to reform itself but also steer away from its original revolutionary ideals. More specifically, the arguments pointed out that China’s rapid economic growth rate is an unhealthy economic dictates, it is resulting from the exploitation of Chinese farmers and workers under poor human rights standards, also as known as bloody GDP. Because the income per capita in China is still very low, the social security system is not yet complete, so that for three consecutive years in the United Nations Human Development Index ranking dropped to No. 101. "Press Freedom Index" is ranked sixth-worst in the world, well-being of the people and thus continues to fall.

Financial crash was the first one to be predicted, and there are various rumors about China’s economic collapse. To make the situation worse, the unlawful businessmen transfer the majority of assets to foreign countries, the wealth accelerate their emigration procedure, and corrupted government officials transfer colossal interests and benefits to their family who is living abroad, therefore, the economic crisis of China is now on the stage of zero-solution. There is little core values in the entire country due to the lack of soft power and ideology, people could barely trust their own legal and institutional system, the religion and beliefs lost, the whole culture is highly likely facing complete collapse.

But why China has not yet to collapse? Why CCP has not diminished either? China's state capitalism allows the Chinese government excessive power to control everything and hedge all the risk, this is difficult to be understood by the Western-educated people. Also, the country's opposition powers are not well-connected and well-organized, the maintenance of stability along with the deeply-rooted nationalism of Chinese people strengthens the rigidity of CCP's ruling legitimacy. Some people also perceive that comparing with the Mao Zedong Era, people's lives have been greatly improved. Bearing the deeply-rooted belief that "no single power can replace the Communist Party", some intellectuals even affirmed the legitimacy of the rule of CPP, all the aforementioned are the important factors maintain CCP’s survival.

並列關鍵字

China Risen ； China’s Threat ； China’s Peaceful Rise ； China Model ； Beijing Consensus ； China collapse

參考文獻

朱嘉明，2013，《中國改革的歧路》，（台北：聯經出版社）。

《匱乏：中國到底還缺什麼？》， （台北：八旗文化）。

金中爕，1998，＜一九九○年代「中國威脅論」之形成與發展＞，

初國華，2010，＜中國崛起之意涵及其區域政治效應＞，《全球政治評論》，

斯蒂芬•哈爾伯（Stefan Halper），2010，