九二一震災後觀光資源重建對臺灣中部地區之經濟影響分析

An Economic Impact Analysis of the Tourism Reconstruction Project in Central Taiwan after the September 21st Earthquake.

吳雅雯(Ya-Wen Wu)

指導教授 ： 鄭欽龍

國立臺灣大學/生物資源暨農學院/森林學研究所/碩士(2004年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2004.01141

摘要

本研究主要目的在於透過區域投入產出分析模型，評估九二一大地震災後四年重建經費投入後，對中部地區區域整體產業結構及觀光業經濟發展之影響。為分析區域經濟效益，本研究藉由相關研究文獻進行比較，選擇以推估誤差最小之RAS法作為區域係數推估方法，進行區域產業關聯效果與經濟乘數分析。
除此之外，本研究同樣利用區域投入產出模型作為分析工具，藉由個案分析方式，瞭解臺大實驗林在災後四年的觀光資源重建工作對中部地區在產量、所得與就業間之變動情形，以作為爾後該區域經濟計劃執行評估及產業發展類型選擇之參考。
實證結果顯示，九二一震災後中部地區產業發展型態產生明顯的調整。零售業之產業關聯型態顯示該產業由聯鎖效果較低的部門轉為發展其他產業不可缺少之產業。旅館業及懦撥~產業關聯之影響度較2000年前增加，反映出這兩種產業有朝向極易帶動其他產業發展之，而電影、藝文及娛樂業之產業關聯型態則在災後四年中大致維持不變。
另外，經由個案分析可知，災後觀光資源重建經費對中部地區創造之就業效果增額高於所得效果，所得效果增額則大於產量效果。若以個別觀光產業部門來看，1999年以零售業與懦撥~之產出、就業與所得效果增幅較大，2000年至2002年則以零售業與電影、藝文及娛樂業之經濟效果增幅較大，顯示政府觀光發展經費之投入有助於復甦中部地區整體產業成長，惟重建經費投入部門之差異會影響觀光業個別部門之經濟成長效益。
綜合本研究結果來看，在中部地區觀光產業部門中，發展零售業及旅館業對中部地區經濟需求面會產生正向影響，而旅館業與電影、藝文及娛樂業則在經濟供給面較具影響性。因此，中部地區未來可藉由提高零售業及旅館業之最終需要，以增加其對原料之需求，刺激該區域原料產業擴大生產來帶動經濟發展；或提高旅館業與電影、藝文及娛樂業之產量，作為其他產業產品之原料投入供給，藉以誘使其他產業擴大生產，因而提升中部地區之經濟成長。

關鍵字

觀光發展 ； 森林遊樂 ； 經濟衝擊分析 ； 區域投入產出模型 ； RAS法

並列摘要

The main purpose of this thesis was to evaluate how the reconstruction budget of the 921 Earthquake to influence on the industrial structure and the economic development of tourism in central Taiwan. This thesis compared various related literatures and chose the RAS method with the least measurable error to set up the regional input-output model and to assess the linkage contributions and the economic multiplier impacts.
This thesis also used the regional input-output model to evaluate the output, income and employment impacts of the tourism reconstruction investment in Experimental Forest of National Taiwan University after the 921 Earthquake. The evaluation of the impacts of the investment in Experimental Forest of National Taiwan University could provide useful information to select projects and to choose appropriate industrial development type of the region.
The result indicated that the industrial development in central Taiwan was significant after the 921 Earthquake. The shifts of input-output matrix in retailing industry showed that this industry upgraded from the lower linkage effect industry to the essential industry in central Taiwan. The indexes of backward linkage between hotels and the catering production in 2000 were higher than that before; it reflected these two industries have a tendency to promote the economic development.
In addition, the result of case study showed that the reconstruction investment in the tourism section after 921 Earthquake created a higher employment multiplier effect than that of income in central Taiwan, and the value of income multiplier were higher than that of output multiplier. The output, employment and income of retail and catering industries increased more than other industries in 1999. The economic effects of movies, arts and entertainment industry increased significantly from 2000 to 2002. It indicated that increasing investment in tourism section would recover the growth of all the industries in central Taiwan, but the investment in different sections would cause different economic growth rate.
To summarize the study result, the development of retailing and hotels products would have positive effects on economic demand. Hotels, movies, arts and entertainment industry would have positive effects on economic supply side. The increase in final demand of retailing and hotels for raw material would encourage these raw material industries to increase their production. The increment on hotels, movies, and entertainment industry could be the raw material for other industries, and they could lead other industries to increase the production. Then, the economic development would be promoted in central Taiwan.

並列關鍵字

economic impact analysis ； forest recreation ； tourism development ； RAS method ； regional input-output model

參考文獻

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