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  • 學位論文

談判僵局的分析—以總統大選爭議為例

The Analysis of Breaking Through Negotiations —By The case of The Conflict in The Presidential Election

指導教授 : 江炯聰
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摘要


本研究的主要目的在於探討面對談判僵局的分析策略,並且在研究中使用個案來進行討論,找尋其陷入僵局的原因。 第二章的文獻探討是本研究比例最重的部份,本章所使用的分析策略分成三個部份,首先從整個談判架構開始著手,把談判架構分成七個部份,包括了談判的參與者、議題、利益、最佳替代方案、協議可能性評估、連動性時間的影響。接著從談判架構所得到的資料中,去討論造成陷入談判僵局的原因,把這些障礙加以分類成四種類型,結構性障礙、策略性障礙、心理性障礙和制度性障礙,最後對於障礙的加成性也加以分析。最後一個部份為引入干涉者的分析,如何把陷入僵局的參與者重新帶回談判桌是很重要的事情,本部份主要對干涉者的類型與可採用的干涉策略進行討論。 第三章以後為個案探討的部份,本章節首先對於泛藍與泛綠聯盟如何形成做一簡單描述,並且就槍擊案當天發生的事件和泛藍聯盟選後的抗爭活動做一簡單整理,最後以整理新聞報導的方式,說明泛藍聯盟、泛綠聯盟和美國的立場。 第四章為探討總統大選爭議的談判架構,本次爭議的參與人結盟的方式相當清楚,而爭議的議題主要分為兩個部份,第一個是319槍擊案的真相調查,由於缺乏互信,似乎找不到適當的調查方式,第二個是選舉不公的爭議,廢票過多、選務缺失以及319槍擊案的影響,都是雙方爭執的焦點。接著從兩個聯盟的角度去探討在這場爭議的利益為何,然後分析在談判破裂後,雙方可以各自採行的最佳替代方案。最後試著分析總統大選爭議的談判與其他談判的連動性,影響範圍包括了台灣內部和外部的談判。 第五章給出了總統大選爭議的障礙分析。從策略障礙來看,泛藍聯盟為了維護國民黨不致分裂,泛綠聯盟提早佈局年底的總統大選,雙方在策略選擇上,都有意無意的以升高抗爭為目的;在組織性障礙上,泛藍聯盟的抗爭毫無章法和缺乏領導中央,都使得衝突無法獲得控制;在心理障礙上,藍綠雙方在選戰中早已被撩撥的視對方為無法妥協的鬥爭對象。另外本章最後也對於引入干涉者提出了若干看法。 根據前幾章的討論,第六章提出了幾點結論: 1. 本次總統大選爭議其實具有誘因達成協議 2. 雙方設定的談判底線過高,以致無法達成協議 3. 在各種障礙的影響下,談判難有進展 4. 重建溝通管道為復談的第一步 5. 在復談之前,應就整個談判架構重新修正 6. 成立獨立的調查委員會 7. 利用階段性的協議重建互信

關鍵字

談判 爭議 障礙 協調人 總統大選爭議

並列摘要


The purpose of this research is to discuss the analysis strategy in a negotiation deadlock. Some cases are also discussed to investigate the reason of getting into the deadlock. The chapter two is literature review, and it can be divided into three parts of analysis strategies. First of all, it focus on the negotiation framework, which is composed of seven elements, parties, issues, interests, the best alternative to a negotiated agreement, agreements, linkage, and time. Second, the information obtained from the negotiation framework is further investigated to find out the reason of getting into negotiation deadlock. Then these obstacles are classified as structural barriers, strategic barriers, psychological barriers, and institutional barriers. And the reinforcing is also discussed. Third, the intervenor is introduced into the discussion, and it is important to make the players involving negotiation deadlock to go back to negotiate again. This part also discusses the types of intervenors and the adoptable intervention strategy. The chapter four is to explain the negotiation framework of controversial issues in the Presidential Election. The alliance formation in this issue is obvious. There are main issues, one is the truth examine of the assassination, and the other is the unfairness in voting process, like too many ballots, irregularity in the election and the impact of assassination. Then we discuss the interests in this controversy in both alliances’ perspective, and also discuss the best substitute proposal of each alliance. In the end, we try to analyze the linkage between the negotiation in Presidential Election controversy and other negotiations. The impacts include the negotiations which happens in Taiwan and outside Taiwan. The chapter five analyzes the obstacles in the Presidential Election controversy. In the strategic obstacle, both of Pan-Blue and Pan-Green camp seem to elevate remonstration situation, the Pan-Blue camp is for the sake of maintain KMT’s union and avoid split off, and Pan-Green camp is for arranging the Legislative Election in advance. In the organizing obstacles, the lacking of principle and short of guiding make the conflict out of control. In the psychological obstacles, both of Pan-Blue and Pan-Green Camp view the counterpart as someone who never compromise. In the end of this chapter, the intervenor is introduced to propose some viewpoints. According to the preceding discuss, the chapter six provide some conclusions: 1. It may exist incentive to achieve agreement in this Presidential Election. 2. Both set a too difficult bottom line in the negotiation to achieve the agreement. 3. The negotiation is hard to progress in the influence of the obstacles. 4. Reconstructing the communication channel is the first step of reinstate negotiation. 5. The negotiation structure should be adjusted before reinstate negotiation. 6. The independent and neutral examine commission should be established. 7. The progressive agreement should be used to reconstruct mutual trust.

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