- 學位論文
突破性創新、漸進式創新和國外直接投資
Breakthrough Innovation, Incremental Innovation, and Foreign Direct Investment
摘要
本文建立一個在開放式經濟體下研究產品週期發展的模型，於此模型中產品週期的結構由內生的漸進式創新、突破性創新以及外生給定的南國廠商模仿所構成。在產品每個世代的產品週期的起始點，北國的現有廠商投資漸進式創新以降低生產產品的成本，提升生產力。而在開放式經濟體的設定下，現有廠商也可以透過國外直接投資移至南國生產，節省生產時的人力成本。現有的廠商在生產的同時，面臨到生產技術被南國廠商模仿的風險，一旦生產技術被南國廠商模仿成功，失去獨佔能力的北國廠商將會被具備成本優勢的南國廠商逐出產品市場。因為南國廠商並無研發漸進式創新的能力，使產品的生產力從此停止成長。最後，想要進入市場的潛在廠商針對那些由南國生產的產業投資突破性創新，企圖研發出比現有的產品更先進的產品，獲得獨佔的地位。一旦突破性創新成功，舊世代的產品週期結束，新的產品週期開始。 產品週期的長度不僅代表產品存活的時間也代表產品生產力成長的速度。漸進式創新的強度影響生產力成長的速度、南國廠商模仿的成功率則影響生產力成長的時間，最後突破性創新的成功率決定生產力零成長時期的長度。於此模型中，北國的產業存在兩種類的產品：留在北國的廠商所生產的產品、移至南國生產的廠商所生產的產品。本文的結果將告訴我們，移至南國生產的產品，其產品週期的長度較留在北國的產品來的短。
並列摘要
This paper develops a product cycle model in an open economy. In this model, the product cycles arise from endogenous incremental innovation, breakthrough innovation and exogenous imitation by firms in the South. At the beginning of a product cycle for one generation, incumbent firms in the North improve their productivity to reduce production costs by investing incremental innovation. Different from the firms in a closed economy model, the incumbent firms in our open economy model can also reduce production costs by shifting production to the South where the wage of labor is cheaper than the North. Although those firms which shift production to the South, or multinational firms, have lower production costs than North firms, they face a higher risk that their production technologies will be imitated by South firms. If South firms successfully imitate, incumbent North and multinational firms can no longer keep the monopoly position in product market. By assuming that production costs of South firms are cheaper than that of North and multinational firms, North and multinational firms will leave the perfectly competitive market. Since South firms don’t have capability for incremental innovation, the productivity growth will suspend in this period. To capture the market again, firms in the North try to improve quality level of products by developing breakthrough innovation. If the breakthrough innovation is successful, the product cycle for the old generation will come to an end, and the product cycle for a new generation will start. Length of product cycles is not only decided by the survival time but also depends on its growth speed of productivity growth. Incremental innovation enhances the growth speed, while exogenous imitation ends its growth forever. Breakthrough innovation shortens the rest no-growth time of product cycles. In our model, there are two types of products in the North industries, products produced by North firms and products produced by multinational firms. In this paper, I will show that the length of product cycle of products produced by North firms is longer than that of products produced by multinational firms.
參考文獻
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