氣候變遷及乾旱灌溉用水移用對水稻潛能產量影響

Influences of Climatic Change and Irrigation Water Transfer on the Potential Production of Rice

周玫君(Mei-Chiun Chou)

指導教授 ： 童慶斌

共同指導教授 ： 譚義績(Yih-Chi Tan)

國立臺灣大學/生物資源暨農學院/生物環境系統工程學研究所/碩士(2004年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2004.01370

摘要

近年人為活動排放大量溫室氣體至大氣中，加強了溫室效應及全球暖化，導致氣候變遷，連帶影響台灣氣候與水文有極端化發展之趨勢，對我國農業也造成影響，而水稻為我國相當重要之農業作物，農業用水標的中灌溉用水量更佔了所有用水量之六成，本文為了解氣候變遷對水稻產能之衝擊，以全球環流模式（General Circulation models, GCMs）氣候變遷預測氣候資料，模擬未來水稻潛能產量變化之趨勢，並針對模擬結果及過程所遭遇之困難與不確定性提出建議。
另有關灌溉用水部分，影響層級達產業及民生，而近年來乾旱事件頻傳，調度及支援民生用水或工業用水不可避免，但目前調用制度及使用者付費機制尚有不足，而過去有關水市場交易機制等之研究，侷限於成本效益分析之考量，與預測氣候資料沒有連動性，因此本研究利用CERES-Rice生理模式模擬淡水河流域稻米灌區在不同灌溉方式下產量與灌溉用水之對應關係，據以建立農業灌溉用水產值評估，以作為用水管理之建議。

關鍵字

全球暖化 ； 模擬 ； 溫室效應

並列摘要

Greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere enhance the greenhouse effects and result in global warming. Taiwan is also under the influence of these climatic changes. The resulting extremely climatic and hydrologic changes impose significant influence on the local agriculture. The irrigation of rice, one of the most important crops in Taiwan, contributes more than 60% of water consumption. In order to investigate the impact of climatic changes on rice production, the meteorological data predicted by General Circulation Models (GCMs) is used to simulate the trend of rice production change in this study. All simulated results, difficulties, and uncertainties are all depicted in this work.
Irrigation water consumption is important to the water allocation in both industrial and domestic sectors. In recent years, the frequent occurring drought events make it necessary to share the water resource to the domestic and industrial sectors from the agriculture sector. However, this sharing system is still lack of the user-pay mechanism. The reported trading mechanisms for water market are limited to the consideration of cost-effective analysis, are not relevant to the predicted meteorological data. Therefore, CERES-Rice model is used in this study to simulate the relationship between rice production and irrigation water amount for Tan-Shei River basin under different irrigation situations. Simulated results further serve as the basis to evaluate the monetary production of agriculture irrigation water use. These information can also provide suggestion for the precaution of drought.

並列關鍵字

Global Warming ； Greenhouse Effects ； Simulation

參考文獻

宋嘉文，「氣候變遷對台灣西半部地區降雨及乾旱影響之研究」，成功大學水利及海洋工程學研究所碩士論文，2003。

Bachelet, D., and C.A. Gay., 1993. The impacts of climate change on rice yield: a comparison of four model performances. Ecol. Mod. 65:71-93.

Centeno H. G. S., Balbarez A. D., Fabellar N.G., Kropfe M.J., and Matthews R.B. , 1995. Rice Production In India Under Current and Future Climates. p237-250. Modeling The Impact Of Climate Change On Rice Production In Asia. R. B. Matthews et al. (eds.)

Ehleringer, J. and Björkman, O., 1977. Quantum Yields for CO2 Uptake in C3 and C4 Plants. Plant Physiol. 59:86-90.

Gesch, R. W., Boote, K. J., Vu, J.C.V., Allen, L. H. Jr and Bowes, G., 1998, Changes in Growth CO2 Result in Rapid Adjustments of Ribulose-1, 5-Bisphosphate Carboxylase/Oxygenase Small Subunit Gene Expression in Expression in Expanding and Mature Leaves of Rice. Plant Physiol. 118:521-529.