地震因子對崩塌潛勢影響之統計評估

Statistical Evaluation of the Effect of Earthquake on Landslide Susceptibility

楊凱鈞(Kai-Chun Yang)

指導教授 ： 黃宏斌

國立臺灣大學/生物資源暨農學院/生物環境系統工程學研究所/博士(2013年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2013.02550

摘要

崩塌潛勢分析及預測是集水區經營重要工作項目之一。在地震發生後，崩塌潛勢會隨著離震央之距離成某一函數減少，且地震會提高區域之崩塌潛勢，使得在同樣之雨量下更易發生崩塌，然而，地震影響之權重如何，如何考量地震之影響，考慮地震因子可否提昇模型之準確度，卻少有量化之數據及研究。為瞭解地震如何影響暴雨誘發之崩塌，本研究利用交通部中央氣象局地震觀測網之水平地表最大加速度資料作為地震之因子，連同其他因子使用羅吉斯迴歸瞭解地震因子於崩塌潛勢之權重。研究結果證明，在從未發生地震誘發崩塌之集水區中，歷史線性累加之水平地表最大加速度值，仍會對該地之崩塌潛勢造成影響，增加其暴雨誘發崩塌之潛勢。比較加入與未加入水平地表最大加速度，加入水平地表最大加速度使得崩塌潛勢模式更為準確。歷史線性累加之水平地表最大加速度被證明是一個可代表地震影響之因子。在長期有地震發生、地質活動活躍之區域，使用歷史資料評估崩塌潛勢時，即使地震因子並非崩塌誘發因子，地震長期性之影響也該被納入，增加該區域崩塌潛勢分析之正確性。

關鍵字

崩塌潛勢 ； 地震 ； 暴雨誘發崩塌 ； 水平地表最大加速度 ； 羅吉斯迴歸

並列摘要

Landslide susceptibility evaluation is one of the most important issues in watershed management. After an earthquake, the landslide susceptibility decreases functionally with increases in the distance from the epicenter. Under the same rainfall intensity, landslides are more likely to occur in an area where earthquakes occur more frequently. However, the questions of how much an earthquake should be weighted and how to evaluate the effects of an earthquake still need to be studied. To understand how earthquakes affect rainfall-triggered landslides, the horizontal peak ground acceleration (PGA) data from the Central Weather Bureau Seismic Network is used as the earthquake factor and combined with other factors to determine the weight of earthquakes in landslide susceptibility using Logistic regression. The results indicate that the ability of landslide prediction is better when considering the earthquake factor. This study also proved that although there are no co-seismic landslides (after earthquakes) in the study area, the earthquake factor is still required to increase the model accuracy. PGA has been described as a usable factor. In areas with frequent earthquakes and high geological activity, when using historical data to evaluate landslide susceptibility, the earthquake factor should be taken into consideration to prevent errors.

並列關鍵字

Landslide susceptibility ； earthquake ； rainfall-triggered landslide ； peak ground acceleration ； Logistic regression

參考文獻

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