後冷戰時期中華民國國家安全政策之研究〈一個戰略三角與鐘擺理論架構下的分析〉

A Study of Taiwan’s National Security Policy in Post-Cold-War Era,“Analysis under the Models of Strategic Triangle and Pendulum Theories”

鄭榮豐(Jung-Feng Cheng)

指導教授 ： 包宗和

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/政治學研究所/碩士(2007年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2007.02112

摘要

兩岸的對峙與衝突讓島上居民長期處於不安與危機感之中，維護國家安全是政府責無旁貸的使命；中華民國在冷戰結束後面臨全球權力結構重整與全球化趨勢等兩大挑戰，國家領導人必須思考並運用策略創造和平穩定環境，引領人民在後冷戰紀元追求更高品質的生活。
美國與兩岸自1949年以來就有深遠的歷史連結，冷戰期間美國巧妙地聯合中國共同對抗蘇聯，但同時也提供中華民國防衛協助，因此形成複雜的美中蘇大戰略三角，與附屬於大三角下的美中台小戰略三角。此外，美國基於國家利益與國內政治因素，其政策傾向長期在兩岸之間搖擺，這種鐘擺現象不但對兩岸的外交政策產生影響，亦衝擊美中台戰略三角結構的形塑。
美中台戰略三角當中，美國及中國是與台灣相鄰的二個角，因此對美政策與大陸政策攸關其國家生存安全，為本文研究的核心。冷戰結束後，李登輝及陳水扁先生接續擔任中華民國總統，李登輝運用「務實外交」與「兩岸談判」來追求國家生存空間，陳水扁強調「主權」與「尊嚴」爭取國際地位，不同政黨在不同時期使用不同策略來處理國家安全大政，譜出後冷戰時期劇烈起伏的美中台三角關係，兩岸從和善的談判氣氛瞬間反目成仇，美中也在全球化潮流下發生軍事對峙，在這些事件的背後其實都是國家之間為各自利益所進行的博弈，我們都將一一攤開來探討。
本文分析整理李登輝及陳水扁總統執政期間的國家安全政策，並以戰略三角理論來歸納與解釋美中台三方互動模式，亦特別針對美國在兩岸間的政策鐘擺與台北的回應作深入分析，發現美國是鐘擺效應的最大獲利者，這種效應也成就她在戰略三角的最有利地位。以冷戰結束後十餘年歷史為鑒，本文對中華民國如何爭取美中台戰略三角的有利地位與利用美國政策鐘擺現象追求國家最大利益作成建議，希望執政者以天下蒼生為念，理性制訂國家安全政策。

關鍵字

國家安全 ； 國家利益 ； 戰略三角 ； 鐘擺理論 ； 大陸政策

並列摘要

Owing to the confrontations and conflicts in Taiwan Strait, the people in the Island were suffered with a long-term disturbance and fear. It is an unshakable responsibility for the government to safeguard its own national security. In the wake of Cold war’s collapse, the ROC is facing two major challenges, which are the global power restrictions as well as the trends of globalization. As a national leader, the creation of a peaceful and stable environment must be always thought strategically in his mind for leading people of Taiwan to bathe in a better life in the post Cold War era.
Since 1949, the US and both Chinas have had a profoundly historical links. In the Cold-War period, the US ingeniously joined China to resist Soviet Union, and also provided Republic of China defense assistances, therefore formed the complex American-Sino-Soviet grand strategy triangle, and a American-Sino-Taiwan mini strategy triangle which is attached under the great triangle. In addition, based on the national interest and the domestic politics factors, the US makes policy deviations swing between the two Chinas for a long time. It looks like a clock pendulum. This phenomenon has not only influenced the two Chinas’ foreign policy, but also impacted the structure shaping of American-Sino-Taiwan strategy triangle.
Among the American-Sino-Taiwan strategy triangle, both of the US and China are the two legs link to Taiwan. Therefore, the policies toward American and mainland China become the essential of Taiwan’s national security issue, and also becomes the core of this paper. After the end of Cold-War, Mr. Lee, Teng-hui and continue with Mr. Chen, Shui-bian became the president of Republic of China. Lee, Teng-hui utilize “the practical diplomacy” and “cross-straits negotiation” to pursue the national survival space. Mr. Chen, Shui-bian emphasized on “the sovereignty” and “the dignity” to strive for the international standing. The different parties used different strategy to process the national security issues in different timeframe, and formed the ripple American-Sino-Taiwan triangle in post Cold-War period, while the two Chinas cross-straits suddenly became hostile from the genial negotiations. American-Sino relations had military confronting right under the wave of globalization. All of these events were actually gambling for their national interest among the countries which we will discuss in detail.
This thesis analyzes the national security policies of President Lee, Teng-hui and President Chen, Shui-bian, and to conclude and explain the American-Sino-Taiwan interacting pattern under the strategic triangle theory. This thesis also analyzes deeply on the American policy pendulum toward two Chinas cross-straits and the responses of Taipei. We find that the US is the most beneficiary of the pendulum effects. It also helps her to get the most advantage position in the strategic triangle. Base on the history after the end of Cold-War, we make suggestions for Republic of China government which is how to acquire the advantage position in American-Sino-Taiwan strategy triangle and to pursue the maximum national interest using the American policy pendulum. We do hope that the government should consider the people in the country in making rational national security policies

並列關鍵字

National Security ； National Interest ； Strategic Triangle ； Pendulum Theory ； Mainland Policy

參考文獻

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