影響台灣通貨存款比率變化因素之探討

Determinants of Currency Deposits Ratio—Empirical Study of Taiwan

邱婉美(Wan-Mei Chiu)

指導教授 ： 謝德宗教授

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/經濟學研究所/碩士(2007年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2007.02324

摘要

隨著金融自由化與全球化發展，傳統以間接金融為主的金融體系逐漸產生變化，銀行是資金供給者與需求者間的橋樑角色也日趨勢微，加上大眾投資管道與廠商籌資方式多元化，造成貨幣乘數的波動性擴大，促使央行控制貨幣供給的能力遭到質疑。由於通貨存款比是影響貨幣乘數主要的原因，是以本文的主要目的是希望找出能影響通貨存款比率的諸多因素，並利用迴歸方程式的實證結果進行篩選，進而得知其對通貨存款比率C/D的影響，俾能提供央行作為掌握貨幣乘數變動的依據。綜合本文實證結果，可得到下列結論：
(1)通貨存款比率具有前後期正相關。
(2)影響台灣通貨存款比例C/D的因素：除虛擬變數外，還包括屬於金融結構性因素的債券型基金 、信用卡單月消費金額 、台灣加權股價指數及融資餘額，也包括屬於總體經濟因素的國民生產毛額及物價指數，另外C/D前期也是能影響C/D比率的因素之一。
(3)春節因素對C/D的影響程度是0.03；而0.03這個數字恰可以讓央行在農曆春節期間有所參考依據，亦即央行應在農曆春節期間準備多少的通貨供大眾提領端視存款貨幣的變動而定；當存款貨幣增加1元，通貨淨額會隨之增加0.03元，因此央行應該備妥該比例數量的通貨以供民眾春節期間的現金需求。
通貨存款比例在貨幣乘數中扮演極為重要角色，尤其隨著直接金融發展及人們交易習慣改變等原因，通貨存款比例長期趨勢呈現持續往下滑落，影響貨幣乘數的穩定性更是明顯。是以本文透過篩選變數的逐步迴歸過程，找出影響 比率的可能結構性因素，相信對央行在掌握貨幣乘數變化以及調整貨幣政策效果時，將具有更大的助益。

關鍵字

通貨存款比率 ； 貨幣乘數 ； 存款貨幣 ； 通貨淨額 ； 結構性因素

並列摘要

Money creation is the process by which the money supply of a country is increased. There are several ways that a government, in coordination with the country's commercial banks, can increase or decrease the money supply of a country. The most common mechanism used to generate money is typically called the money multiplier. It measures the amount by which the commercial banking system increases the money supply. Reserve ratios and currency deposits ratio are both the factors of money multiplier. To control the amount of money created by the system, central banks place reserve ratios on the commercial banks which set the proportion of primary deposits the banks may not lend out. However, reserve ratios can hardly be adjusted in most of the country. Currency deposits ratio, therefore, become the key link to money multiplier.
In order to find the determinants of currency deposits ratio, we use several regression models and two tails t-test in this thesis. It is found that：(1)Currency deposits ratio is auto correlation. (2)There are 8 remarkable factors to influence currency deposits ratio, including the bond fund size, credit transactions, and consumer pricing index,etc. (3)Chinese lunar year is one of the key factor.

並列關鍵字

currency deposits ratio ； money multiplier ； credit transaction ； money supply ； high power money

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