「高值化」是否為台灣石化產業未來唯一解決之道 ?

台灣石化產業在2011年達到產值的高峰，達新台幣1.92兆元，約GDP的19.9%，相關就業人口高達四十萬以上。但是石化產品出口衰退趨勢在2011年下半年即開始呈現。執政黨馬總統於2011年四月22日因民眾與環保團體壓力下，宣布不支持國光石化案，主管石化產業的經濟部工業局旋即修正「產業政策白皮書」內容，於2011年十二月成立「石化高值化推動辦公室」 (High Value Petrochemical Industry Promotion Office，PIPO)，全力推動石化產業「高值化」為政策目標。 2012年上半年台灣經濟成長率屢次往下修正，石化業也面臨了比大陸更大幅度的衰退。台灣在主要出口國家的表現上，如東協市場、歐盟、中國大陸，都有不同的因素使得台灣「國家競爭力」不若以往。「永續發展」對於石化工業，經濟成長與環境保護上，此刻顯得格外衝突卻又重要。本研究以Michael Porter的鑽石模型，比較台灣石化產業，以2010年為分水嶺，作過去與未來的國家競爭態勢分析。比較後僅「供應條件」與「產業結構、競奪和企業策略」兩大要素中，台灣因為經驗、資本與技術累積，得以呈現正向趨勢。而「機會」要素中，則需台灣在「雁行理論」中爭取進入跨國性企業的「雁行陣列」，取得正向趨勢 ;其餘要素均呈負向趨勢。其中最嚴重影響是來自「政府」。本研究亦補充了John Dunning的「國際化Porter的鑽石模型」 (Internationalizing Porter’s Diamond)，以「跨國商業活動」 (Multinational Business Activities， MBA) 要素，依據「外資企業在台灣」、「台商企在國外」、「商業活動對象」等三細項作分析，結果均對台灣石化產業未來的「國家競爭力」有正向加分。結論中針對整理出的問題一一做了檢討與解釋，其中對於業者本身的自省，分析整理出的重點為業者應該要內化在環境保護與職工長期健康衛生上的成本，而非僅重視改善具有即時效應的安全成本。這是「永續發展」中「社會責任」的承諾。在結論中，結合了Porter與Dunning的模型分析，總結出台灣的石化產業未來，「高值化」是必須，但它不是唯一的解決之道。對研究貢獻而言，提醒政府與業者以成語「良禽擇木而棲」來作比擬，「良禽」為石化業者，「木」為台灣這個國家，台灣石化產業的未來，「政府」需要更多的責任，把即將無法棲息任何良禽的朽木，變成可以選擇良禽且無蠹蟲的健康良木。對管理意涵而言，本研究根據影響鑽石模型的不同構面，轉化成對於政府、本土與跨國企業的具體四項行動建議: 一、知己知彼; 二、面對挑戰; 三、他山之石、可以攻錯; 四、審時度勢、善用時機，共同為台灣的石化產業未來「永續發展」而努力!

關鍵字

Porter鑽石模型；跨國商業活動；國家競爭力；永續發展；高值化；雁行理論

並列摘要

The petrochemical production value in Taiwan reached the peak of NT$ 1.92 trillion in 2011, about 19.9% of total GDP, with working force over 400 thousand employees servicing in the industry. But it performed downward trend since 2nd half of 2011. President Ma of ruling party announced the termination of Kuo-Kwang petrochemical project on Apr. 22, 2011, under the pressure of protests from residents and environmental protection groups. Government agency Industry Developing Bureau (IDB) under Ministry of Economic Affairs (MOEA), amended the White Paper of petrochemical industry policy shortly after the announcement, and established the “High Value Petrochemical Industry Promotion Office, PIPO”, to fully launch the “High Value” target as policy in petrochemical industry since Dec. 2011. The economic growth rate was revised downwards a few times in 1st half of 2012. Petrochemical industry in Taiwan faced the more serious recession than China behaved. Taiwan, deemed as attributed by some factors, performed a descending “national competitive advanatges” in exporting markets, such as ASEAN countries, EU and Mainland China. It appears so contradictory but important in terms of the pillars between economic growth and environmental protection in “Sustainable Development” to petrochemical industry. By taking 2010 as a watershed, the study conducts the comparison of “national competitive advantages” for past and future Taiwan via Michael Porter’s Diamond Model. After the analysis, the “Supply Conditions” and “Structure, Rivalry and Business Strategy” two elements outperform with positive outlook. It’s because Taiwan used to accumulate the experience, capitals and technologies to drive the future trend upwards. In “Opportunity” element, it will get upward if Taiwan pursues as one party in the flying geese led by multinational enterprises under the “Flying Geese Model”. Remaining elements are downward trend, among which, “Government” affects most seriously. The study also complements John Dunning’s “Internationalizing Porter’s Diamond”, by “Inward Foreign Direct Investment”, “Outward Foreign Direct Investment” and “Counterparties of Business Activities” the three sub-elements defined in “Multinational Business Activities, MBA”, to analyze the “national competitive advantages” of petrochemical industry in Taiwan. The MBA delivers positively to Taiwan. The conclusion discusses and explains the questions raised in study with details. It proposes the retrospection from industry players, to spend the capital expenditure budgets in protection of environment and long term occupational health to employees, not merely the attention of “safety” concern which is always with imminent impact to the business as the key points in study. This is the “social responsibility”, one of the commitments in “Sustainable Development”. The conclusion combines the models of Porter and Dunning’s, to outline it’s a must to pursue “High Value” for the petrochemical industry in Taiwan, but NOT the sole solution to take. From research contribution, to remind all stakeholders by taking a Chinese proverb of “Good birds select their roosts”: the good birds to represent the “petrochemical industry players”; the roost to represent the “government”. For a sustainable future of petrochemical industry in Taiwan, the “government” shall assume more responsibility to keep a robust roost without worms, as well as the screen of good birds for nesting From managerial implications, the study provides four concrete bullets as recommended actions to government and industry players, which are converting from different dimensions shall influence the diamond model. These are: “Analyzing competitors, and consolidating self”, “Facing the challenges”, “Referring to others by amendment for success” and “Grabbing the opportunity”. It’s to jointly strive for “Sustainable Development” of petrochemical industry in Taiwan.

並列關鍵字

Diamond Theory ； Multinational Business Activities ； National Competitive Advantages ； Sustainable Development ； High Value ； Flying Geese Model

參考文獻

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