電腦輔助談判軟體之發展與應用

Computer-aided Negotiation (CAN)

蔡明傑(Ming-Chieh Tsai)

指導教授 ： 江炯聰

國立臺灣大學/管理學院/商學研究所/碩士(2007年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2007.02421

摘要

本論文主要是以理論為基礎，進行整合、探索性的研究。其主要以傳統談判理論為基礎，建構出可量化的數理談判模型，並根據此模型設計出電腦模擬程式。在論文中將利用此電腦程式配合傳統談判理論發展出一套程序，協助談判者找出最佳的談判方式，獲得最佳結果。在談判者準備談判的過程中，談判者主要可藉由四階段的準備以創造出具有優勢且充滿效率的談判路徑。

第一階段，談判者可利用系統性分析敵、我及客觀環境，蒐集資訊，了解雙方談判動機以及客觀環境對雙方的影響。

第二階段，談判者針對第一階段分析的結果做出策略性行動(strategically move)，試圖降低對方的底價(Reservation Price)及談判桌外的最佳選擇(Best alternative to a Negotiated Agreement)。這階段將為談判者增加談判優勢。

第三階段，談判者藉由第一階段的分析發現談判雙方在談判議題上價值認知上差異的因素，利用這些因素創造出新的議題，這將為這場談判創造價值，也就是談判一方可以相對較低的成本為對方帶來相對高的效益。

第四階段，利用電腦程式排列出最佳談判路徑，也就是雙方談判報酬(Pay off)的分布以效率邊界的方式呈現。此電腦程式在談判前可以幫助談判者有效模擬所有可能狀況，在談判中以最有效率的談判路徑進行談判，並針對現場資訊做即時調整。此外，更可幫助談判者在面對複雜的談判議題時，可以專注在關鍵議題上。

關鍵字

談判 ； 電腦 ； 程式 ； 柏拉圖

並列摘要

The thesis is on basis of the theory then has a further development which is mainly based on the traditional negotiation theories, bringing out numerical negotiation model, and moving on the simulation program for this model. The negotiator can find out the best negotiation method to reach the best result by using the software and the traditional theory. There are four phases for negotiators in preparation of the negotiation, which will assist negotiators to create an advantageous and efficient negotiation routes.

In the first phase, negotiator uses systemized methods to analyze the opponent, himself, and the environment to collect information and find out the reason why two parts negotiate with each other and how environment affects two parts.

In the next phase, negotiator will do some strategically moves according to the result from the first phase. Negotiator will try to lower the opponent’s Reservation Price and Best alternative to a Negotiated Agreement. This will increase the negotiator’s advantage in this negotiation.

In the third phase, negotiator will try to find out factors which lead two parts have different perceive value on the same issue and use these factors to create new issues. It will create value for this negotiation, one increasing higher value to the other with lower cost.

In the last phase, negotiator will use a software to find out the best negotiation routes，which means the distribution of negotiation pay off is expressed by Pareto optimality. This software can not only help the negotiator to simulate any possibility before the real moment but also can adjust by updated information on time. Besides, it will facilitate the negotiator to focus on the critical issue when facing the complicated task.

並列關鍵字

Negotiation ； computer ； Pareto optimality

參考文獻

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