股利訊息、企業生產力與盈餘品質關聯性分析

本論文共分為二部分。第一部份，吾人探討盈餘管理（或盈餘品質）是否會影響股利政策及股利的資訊內涵。具體而言，本文探討當期股利變動程度與未來年度未預期盈餘間之關連性。雖然此議題已於文獻中廣泛探討及進行實證分析之，然而，仍並未有足夠實證證據支持之關連性。本文認為經理人利用裁決性應計項目增加私人利益時，股利政策可能成為誤導投資人的工具之一。本文發現，相較於高盈餘品質的經理人，低盈餘品質的經理人增加股利的機率較低，但這些經理人當面臨時股票選擇權將逾期時，其增發股利的機率會提高。或當經理人即將卸任時，相較於年紀較輕的經理人，年紀較長的經理亦會提高增發股利的機率。顯示出低盈餘品質的公司，當經理人的私有利益可能減少時或欲增加私人利益時，股利政策成為誤導投資人判斷績效的工具之一。除此之外，本文亦發現在高盈餘品質公司，其股利變動程度與未來年度未預期盈餘之變動成正向關係，此實證結果與股利訊號假說一致。不過，於低盈餘品質公司，其股利變動程度與未來年度未預期盈餘之變動間關連性，未達統計上顯著水準。整體而言，上述結果意含在低盈餘品質公司，股利訊號假說並不是經理人決定股利政策時的第一考量。在第二部分，本文探討生產力是否為導致不同種類的盈餘管理行為。吾人採用生產理論中所提出的創新方法：資料包絡分析法及勞動生產力成長因素分解法，以衡量生產力成長的持續性，進而估計未來維持高生產力的潛力。同時，本文亦參考Tucker and Zarowin(2006)，構建損益平穩化的衡量指標。實證結果顯示生產力與損益平穩化程度指標呈正向關係。此發現意涵當公司生產力高時，經理人利用裁決性應計項目構建出平穩化盈餘數列，但當生產力低時，經理人卻投機性運用裁決性應計項目。吾人進一步分析，相較於低生產力公司，高生產力的盈餘及裁決性應計項目價值攸關性較高。

關鍵字

股利政策；股利訊號；盈餘品質；損益平穩化；勞動生產力成長因素分解；價值攸關性

並列摘要

There are two parts in this doctoral dissertation. In the first part, I examine whether the behavior of earnings management (or earnings quality) affects the dividend policy and information content of dividends. Specifically, I investigate the relationship between dividend changes and unexpected changes in future earnings. This issue has been the subject of numerous empirical studies. However, these studies have failed to document a significant relationship. I allow for the fact that dividends would be as tools to mislead investors when managers could benefit from the income-increasing discretionary accruals. I find that firms with low earnings quality are less (more) likely to raise (cut) dividends, but further investigate and find the managers whose options will expire are more likely to raise dividends than managers whose options won’t in the firms with low earnings quality. The result also indicates the older managers are more likely to raise dividends than younger managers for CEOs facing turnover in low earnings quality firms. Otherwise, I also find that in high earnings quality firms, there is a significant positive relation between the magnitude of dividend change and unexpected future earnings changes, consistent with the signaling theory of dividends. However, in low earnings quality firms, the relation between dividend increases and unexpected future earnings changes is insignificant. Overall, this finding implies that signaling effect is not first order of dividend policy in low earnings quality firms. In the second part, this paper investigates whether magnitude of productivity induces different behaviors of earnings management. I use an innovative method proposed by in production theory to measure the persistence of growth to measure the potential to be high productivity in the future by applying Data envelopment Analysis (DEA) method and decomposing the labor productivity growth. Meanwhile, I follow Tucker and Zarowin (2006) to construct an income-smoothing measure. The data reveal the relations between the magnitude of income smoothing and productivity is positive. This result implies firms with high productivity (or high earnings persistence) manage discretionary accruals to make a smooth earnings series, but firms with low productivity (or low earnings persistence) use discretionary accruals opportunistically. I further investigate and find earnings and discretionary accruals in high productivity firms have more value relevance than ones in low productivity firms

並列關鍵字

Dividends policy ； Dividend signaling ； Earnings quality ； Income smoothing ； Decomposition of labor productivity growth ； Value relevance

參考文獻

Hunt, A., S. Moyer, and T. Shevlin. 2000. Earnings Volatility, Earnings Management,

Baber, W. R., P. M., Fairfield, J. A. Haggard. 1991. The Effect of Concern About Reported Income on Discretionary Spending Decisions: The Case of Research and Development. The Accounting Review 66(4): 818-829.

Gaynor, G. H. 2002. Innovation by Design: What it Takes to Keep Your Company on The Cutting Edge. AMACOM American management association, New York, NY.

Aharony, J., and I. Swary. 1980. Quarterly Dividend and Earnings Announcements and Stockholders Returns: An Empirical Analysis. Journal of Finance 35: 1-12.

Ali, A. and O. Urcan. 2006. Dividend Increases and Future Profitability. Working paper, The University of Texas at Dallas.

國際替代計量

股利訊息、企業生產力與盈餘品質關聯性分析

全文下載

主題瀏覽