運輸部門能源消費量及節能措施之研究

黃運貴(Yung-Kuei Huang)

指導教授 ： 曹壽民

國立臺灣大學/工學院/土木工程學研究所/博士(2005年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2005.02437

摘要

最近幾年來，全球暖化與能源短缺已經在國際議題上變成非常重要的課題。有趣的是這兩項課題具有高度的相關性，因為能源消耗通常會產生二氧化碳，而二氧化碳則是引起氣候變遷的主因。根據國際能源總署的統計資料，運輸部門為各國二氧化碳排放之主要來源之一。此外，依本研究分析結果，台灣地區運輸部門歷年來的能源消費量佔我國各部門第二位。
本研究的目的在於蒐集整理運輸部門的運輸活動量與能源消費量，並就各運輸系統的延人公里數及延噸公里數進行推估。自用小客車、機車、營運大客車為公路系統主要的三種客運運具，三者之每年運量總合佔整個公路系統客運量的95％以上；營業大貨車每年運量佔整個公路系統貨運量之八成以上，近年來更接近九成左右。客運能源消費量約佔整個運輸部門七成，而貨運約佔三成。公路系統的能源消費量歷年來佔運輸部門能源消費量百分比均超過90％。公路客運以自用小客車、機車、營業小客車及公路客運車為主要能源消費運具。在貨運方面，公路貨運以營業大貨車為主要能源消費運具。就運輸系統的能源密集度大小而言，近年來，我國客運各運輸系統之能源密集度由大至小依序為空運、公路、軌道。貨運各運輸系統則是公路、海運、軌道。
此外，本研究利用迪氏對數平均指數分解法分析運輸部門客貨運之活動強度、各運輸系統運量結構及能源密集度等影響因素對運輸部門能源消費量變動的影響效果。根據研究結果，無論是客運或貨運，活動強度與能源密集度為運輸能源消費量主要之影響因素，該兩項因素之影響效果則均主要來自公路系統。
本研究利用迴歸分析方法構建運輸部門相關的運量與能源消費量的預測式，以估算運輸部門能源消費量的基線資料，以及在不同的策略情境下的能源消費量。本研究根據減少公路運輸運量、移轉運輸系統運量結構、提升車輛能源使用效率等三項主軸，就經濟手段、行政制度、運輸需求管理、運輸系統、運具設施、科技應用、推廣教育及土地使用等類別研擬可能的行動策略。該等節能測略提供相關主管機關有系統地規劃符合需要的行動方案。

關鍵字

化石燃料 ； 能源消費量 ； 能源密集度 ； 基線 ； 指數分解

並列摘要

In recent years, global warming and energy shortage have become very important issues in international agenda. Interestingly, these two issues are highly related. Because energy consumption usually produces carbon dioxide (CO2) which is the major cause of climate change. According to the statistical report of International Energy Association, transportation sector is one of major sources of CO2 emission. Furthermore, transportation sector is the second largest energy consumption in Taiwan according to the result of this study.
The objective of this study is to investigate vehicle activity and energy consumption of passenger and freight transportation sector. Passenger-kilometers of travel and tonnage-kilometers of travel were estimated for various transportation systems. Private-cars, motorcycles and commercial buses are the major passenger modes. The percentage of passenger-kilometers from those three modes to the passenger-kilometers of highway system is over 95％. The percentage of tonnage-kilometers from commercial trucks to the tonnage-kilometers of highway transportation sector is over 80% and it reaches 90%.The ratio of energy consumption of passenger and freight transportation sector to the whole transportation sector are about 70% and 30% respectively. On the other hand, the ratio of energy consumption of highway system to the whole transportation sector is over 90%. Private-cars, motorcycles, taxies and intercity buses are major energy consumption sources of passenger transportation sector in highway sector. For freight transportation sector in highway sector the energy consumption from commercial trucks is major source. Recently the energy intensity of air transportation sector is the largest in passenger transportation sector. Highway and rail system follow it sequentially. In the freight transportation sector the sequence of energy intensity is highway, maritime and rail.
Log Mean Divisia Index Method was adopted to analyze effects of activity, structure, and energy intensity of various transportation systems on energy consumption of passenger and freight transportation sector. It was concluded that activity and energy intensity have greater impacts on energy consumption than activity structure. And highway system plays a crucial role in energy consumption of passenger and freight transportation sector.
To estimate the baseline of energy consumption on transportation sector and figure out the energy consumption based on some different strategy scenarios, this study uses regression method to build prediction models on energy consumption and activity of transportation sector. Reducing highway activities, transferring activity structure, and promoting energy consumption efficiency are three major strategy fields. This study bases on former three fields to propose strategies that are classified into economical measures, administration, transportation demand management, transportation system, modes and facilities, technology application, outreach, and land use planning. The related agencies can make action plans on saving energy based on the strategies this study proposed.
Keywords：fossil fuel, energy consumption, energy intensity, index decomposition.

並列關鍵字

fossil fuel ； energy consumption ； energy intensity ； index decomposition

參考文獻

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