筆記型電腦產業變化迅速,消費者喜好難以捉摸,電子零組件多已模組化,其決定權掌握在品牌業者手中,國內代工業者著墨之處不多,相對機殼因需搭配不同外觀設計及電子模組,並配合工業設計、材料、工法、後處理加工,以得到不同色彩圖騰或外觀效果創造產品差異化。 本研究運用情境預測法探討2012年筆記型電腦機殼可能展現型態,從二個驅動力量「技術能力」與「經濟環境」推演出機殼使用材料特性、工法、後處理加工技術,四個不同情境中機殼可能出現面貌,以期幫助業者能預做研發資源配置,抓住未來機會。在四個情境中以情境「倒吃甘蔗」為最有可能情境(37.5 %),其次情境「空有絕學」( 27.1%) 與「遍地開花」(26.7%),而情境「大崩潰」(8.8%)發生機會最低。 整體趨勢顯示主流機型訴求外觀效果及輕薄機殼,因量產性與成本考量,將走向「高剛性」工程塑料為主要用料,並搭配IMR或噴漆外觀處理;高階機型「陽極處理鋁板沖壓」及「鎂鋁合金」機殼仍會佔有一席之地;平價網路機型因價格敏感度為最高,四個不同情境中,均會以工程塑料兼或搭配外觀工法為主要趨勢。
The notebook industry change fast and the consumer’s favor trend is difficult to predict. As electrical components are owned by brand maker, the notebook manufacturers only can create differentiation thru enclosure design integrated with industry design and electrical components. This study applies scenario analysis to predict enclosure outlook at 2012. From 2 driving forces-“technical capability” and “economic environment,” the research suggests 4 different scenarios about the material characteristics and process techniques. In 4 scenarios happen chance is follows: “rebound back”(37.5%), and then “technology leading”(27.1%) and “all is super”(26.7%), and last “great depression” (8.8%). It showed the mainstream notebook enclosure will focus on outlook effect and light-weight. As the productivity and cost concerns, the high modulus engineering plastics with IMR process or painting will be major. For high end notebook’s enclosure will be dominated by aluminum or Mg-Al alloy. And the economical web notebook is price sensitive, engineering plastics will be the major material for enclosure.