21世紀人民幣崛起對美元霸權可能之影響

The possible influence of the rise of RMB on U.S. Dollar hegemony in the 21st century

劉名倫(Ming-Lun Liu)

指導教授 ： 蘇宏達

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/政治學研究所/碩士(2019年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU201904169

摘要

學者Nye(1990)曾言：國力是國家的硬實力（Hard power），同時也是國家的軟實力（Soft power）與巧實力（Smart power）的綜合運用展現，其與國家發展相輔相成。目前國際政治、經濟暨金融等產官學界最熱門的話題，即為中美貿易戰及人民幣和美元關係的競合，中國是否可如同美國和平取代英國霸權的途徑般取代美國？人民幣是否可在短期內為亞洲強勢貨幣或成為亞元？亦或在未來取代美元成為人民幣霸權？為維護美元霸權帶給美國人民龐大的利益，卡特總統（James Earl “Jimmy” Carter, Jr.，1924-）曾說：「任何企圖掌控波斯灣地區的外來勢力，都會被視為對美國國家利益的嚴重威脅，而美國將會以任何必要的手段排除這種威脅，其中包括軍事行動。」。美國前國務卿季辛吉博士（Henry A. Kissinger，1923-）亦把糧食、石油及地緣政治作為美國外交政策的核心利益。他的一句名言被人們廣泛引用：「如果你控制了石油，你就控制了所有國家；如果你控制了糧食，你就控制了所有的人；如果你控制了貨幣，你就控制了全世界。」。
本文由國際政治經濟學（IPE）及國際關係之現實主義三大理論途徑的思考觀點出發，探討21世紀人民幣崛起對美元霸權可能之影響。歐洲中央銀行（ECB）所建構決定國際貨幣地位的經濟性指標可分為4項參數指標，分別為：經濟規模與對外開放程度、金融市場發展與整合、貨幣價值穩定性、使用慣性與網絡外部性等。本文採用歐洲中央銀行所建構上述之4項指標做為本文主要章節架構，並以簡單凱因斯（Keynes）數學函數模型，即GDP=C+I+G+(X-M)，來瞭解、實證並討論人民幣堀起對美元霸權可能影響，最後於結論歸納分析及預測，其符合現實主義下之何種理論途徑。
因此，本研究問題如右：1.依據現實主義之權力平衡論、霸權穩定論及權力轉移論等不同路徑，人民幣有挑戰或取代美元霸權的可能嗎？2.若是，21世紀人民幣堀起與美元霸權，可能為何種理論模型？
經由上述各章節分析討論後，研究發現3點重要結論。分別如下：
1.就權力平衡論而言，因目前中美兩國實力仍差距甚遠，可預見之20年內，在亞太區域中之人民幣和美元存在競爭性共存(Competitive Coexistence)，雙方可能維持權力均勢之格局。
2.就霸權穩定論而言，在全球化下之格局中，人民幣與美元間，仍呈現以美國為首之霸權穩定關係。
3.就權力轉移論與貨幣霸權而論，人民幣與美元之競合關係，因兩者間經濟量體間仍有若干差距之存在，雖在尖端高新產業結構有出現修昔底德陷阱的可能性，但在短期內仍暫時不會出現修昔底德陷阱，亦不會出現貨幣間權力轉移之情狀。

關鍵字

中美貿易戰 ； 人民幣 ； 美元 ； 美元霸權 ； 貨幣霸權 ； 權力平衡論 ； 霸權穩定論 ； 修昔底德陷阱 ； 權力轉移論

並列摘要

Nye(1990)once said that national power is not only the Hard power of a country, but also the comprehensive application and demonstration of its Soft power and Smart power, which complement each other with national development. At present, the hottest topics in the international political, economic and financial circles are the trade war between China and the United States and the competition and cooperation between the RMB and the dollar. Can China replace the United States in the same way that the United States peacefully replaces the British hegemony? Can the RMB be a strong Asian currency or a Asian currency in the short term? Or will it replace the dollar as the hegemon of the renminbi in the future? To bring the people of the United States dollar hegemony huge interests, President Carter (James Earl "Jimmy" Carter, Jr., 1924 -), once said: "any attempt to control alien forces of the Persian gulf region, serious threat to the United States would be considered the interests of the state, while the United States will be to any necessary means to eliminate the threat, including military action." . Former secretary of state Dr. Henry Alfred Kissinger (1923-) also regarded food, oil and geopolitics as the core interests of American foreign policy. "If you control oil, you control all countries; if you control food, you control all people; if you control money, you control the world. .
Based on the three theoretical approaches of international political economy (IPE) and realism in international relations, this paper discusses the possible influence of the rise of the RMB on the US dollar hegemony in the 21st century. The economic indicators established by the European Central Bank (ECB) that determine the status of international currency can be divided into four parameter indicators: economic scale and degree of openness to the outside world, development and integration of financial market, stability of monetary value, inertia of use and network externality, etc. Constructed by the European central bank have four indicators as the main section of the architecture, and with a simple Keynes mathematical function model, namely GDP = C + I + G + (X - M), to understand, the empirical and discuss the Yuan to US dollar hegemony may affect , inductive analysis and prediction, to conclude this paper its way under what theory conforms to the realism.
Therefore, the research questions are as follows: 1. Is it possible for the RMB to challenge or replace the hegemony of the US dollar according to different paths such as the power balance theory of realism, hegemonic stability and power transfer theory? 2. If so, what is the theoretical model of the rise of the RMB and the hegemony of the US dollar in the 21st century?
After the analysis and discussion of the above chapters, three important conclusions are found. They are as follows:
1. As for the balance of power theory, the current strength in China and the United States is still far short of the foreseeable within 20 years, in the Asia Pacific domain of RMB and US dollar has Competitive Coexistence, the two sides may be the pattern of maintaining the balance of power.
2. As far as hegemonic stability is concerned, in the context of globalization, there is still a hegemonic and stable relationship between the RMB and the us dollar, led by the us.
3 from the viewpoint of power transfer theory and monetary hegemony, co-opetition relationships between RMB and US dollar, because there are still some gap between the economic quantity body between the existence of, although in cutting-edge high-tech industrial structure has the possibility of thucydides trap, but still in the short term there will not be temporarily thucydides trap, also won't appear between monetary power transfer situation.

並列關鍵字

China–United States trade war ； RMB ； US dollar ； US dollar hegemony ； currency hegemony ； power balance theory ； hegemonic stability theory ； thucydides trap ； power transfer theory

參考文獻

唐欣偉，2013，〈美國國關學界對中國之評估：以攻勢現實主義與權力轉移論為例〉，《政治科學論叢》，58：47-70。

童振源，2005，〈人民幣匯率之國際政治經濟分析〉，《問題與研究》，44(6)：133-155。

鄭端耀，2003，〈國際關係攻勢與守勢現實主義理論爭辯之評析〉，《問題與研究》，42(2)：1-21。

壹、中文部分：

Brooke A. Smith-Windsor著，2018，〈北約與『修昔底德的陷阱』：美、中大國競逐下的大西洋聯盟戰略〉，《國防雜誌》，33(3)：1-29。