國產車與進口車之競爭—以台灣汽車市場為例

台灣於2002年正式加入世界貿易組織(World Trade Organization)，對於進口車的關稅由原本的30%逐年下降至17.5%。關稅的下降造成進口車的競爭力在台灣汽車市場逐漸增加，導致國產車與進口車的競爭越趨激烈，對國產廠商來說更是一大考驗。本文首先使用Berry, Levinsohn and Pakes (1995)隨機係數離散選擇模型(Random Coefficient Discrete Choice Model)，進行台灣乘用車新車市場之需求面以及成本面的估計。需求面與成本面估計完畢後，進一步利用反事實分析，模擬政府若以國產廠商利潤不受損為前提下，進口關稅稅率若再進一步下降，應該同時給予國產車貨物稅稅率多少補貼，並同時了解福利的變化。需求面估計結果發現，進口車平均需求自身價格彈性大於國產車，且國產車與進口車主要在國產高階車款與進口低階車款之間有較高度的替代與競爭。成本面估計結果顯示，在扣除稅金以及比較相同價位的車款下，國產車的平均邊際成本高於進口車的平均邊際成本。反事實模擬結果發現當進口關稅調降1%、3%、5%時，政府若為了確保國產廠商利潤至少不受損的情況下，應該給予國產車調降貨物稅分別0.75%、2.3%以及3.925%，同時消費者剩餘分別上升20.14%、61.89%、105.82%，社會福利分別上升2.6%、7.8%、13%。

關鍵字

BLP ；隨機係數離散選擇模型；台灣汽車市場；進口車關稅；貨物稅

並列摘要

Taiwan officially joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2002, and the tariff on imported vehicles dropped from 30% to 17.5%, which has increased the competitiveness of imported vehicles in the automobile market in Taiwan. It also caused intense competition between domestic and imported vehicles, which is a big problem for domestic manufacturers. This paper first follows the Berry, Levinsohn and Pakes (1995) Random Coefficient Discrete Choice Model to estimate the demand side and the cost side of the automobile market in Taiwan. Then I use the counterfactual analysis to understand how much subsidy in the commodity tax rate for domestic vehicles can offset the damage from the reduction in the import tax rate. Furthermore, I also compare the changes in welfare. The demand estimation shows that the average own price elasticity of imported vehicles is greater than that of domestic vehicles. In addition, the competition and substitution is mainly between the domestic highlevel and imported lowlevel vehicles. Also, the cost side estimation shows that after the deduction of the tax and conditional on the same price level of domestic and imported vehicles, the average marginal cost of the domestic vehicles is higher than that of imported vehicles. Finally, the counterfactual simulation shows that facing the reduction of 1%, 3%, and 5% in the import tax rate, the government should give the domestic vehicles a commodity tax rate reduction of 0.75%, 2.3%, and 3.925% respectively, to offset the damage. Also, the consumer surplus will be increased by 20.14%, 61.89%, and 105.82% respectively, and the social welfare will be increased by 2.6%, 7.8%, and 13% respectively.