以擴散預測智慧型手機需求-以iPhone為例

蘋果2007年發布第一代iPhone就引起消費者搶購，風潮席捲全球，開創了智慧型手機的熱潮。蘋果公司每次在推出新機的時候總是讓消費者引頸期盼，隨著手機技術在軟硬體上不斷的改善與創新，新一代iPhone推出的速度也越來越快、生命週期逐漸的縮短。因此若能對於需求急速增加且生命週期逐漸縮短的產品有效的預測市場需求，則企業能夠減少庫存與生產成本，進而使企業的獲利提升。為了克服此難題，本研究以Apple iPhone 2009年第三季至2012年第四季共13季，三個世代的iPhone銷售數量為實證數據，並以Bass擴散模型作為預測的基礎架構，在擴散模式中加入iPhone當期價格以及iPhone對消費者的吸引力程度來修正擴散模型，將各代iPhone銷售數據代入模式中，以統計軟體SPSS非線性最小平方法估計出各世代的擴散係數與創新係數。實證分析結果發現擴散模型加入產品價格及產品吸引力修正後在預測方面獲得顯著的預測績效。

關鍵字

擴散模型；市場預測；智慧型手機；預測績效

並列摘要

The smartphone iPhone is entered the market in 2007 and has been all over the world. With the dramatical developing in the smartphone innovation and continuous improvement, the product life cycle of smartphones becomes shorter than before. Therefore, a good forecasting to the smartphone demand can reduce the inventory cost and production cost for the manufactures. In oreder to cope with such problem, we use the iPhone seasonal sales from the third quarter of 2009 to the end of 2012 for illustration by using the Bass diffusion models with the adjustment of price function and attractive character function for the iPhone. The results show that the proposed diffusion model can make a good forecasting performance with the smaller MAPE as well as 14.5%.

並列關鍵字

diffusion model ； market forecasting ； smartphone ； forecasting performance

參考文獻

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國際替代計量

以擴散預測智慧型手機需求-以iPhone為例

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