以模糊二項式法評價具實質選擇權之投資方案

A FUZZY BINOMIAL APPROACH TO VALUATE THE REAL OPTIONS OF INVESTMENT PROJECTS

何旭輝(Shiu-Hwei Ho)

指導教授 ： 廖述賢

淡江大學/管理學院/管理科學研究所博士班/博士(2011年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2011.00033

摘要

傳統之投資方案評估乃是基於對方案的現金流量做折現分析，進而得到諸如淨現值(net present value, NPV)或內部報酬率(internal rate of return, IRR)等之評估結果。然而傳統之折現分析法存在兩個主要的缺點，其一是在不確定的決策情境中投資方案之參數諸如現金流量等難以被精確的估計；其二是存在於投資方案中之管理彈性的價值無法被顯現出來。此兩項缺點對於策略性投資方案的評估結果皆會產生顯著的影響。本論文中所提出之模糊二項式評價模式其目的即在於改善上述的兩項缺點，本模式可被使用於不確定的決策情境中做投資方案的評估；同時於評估結果中亦可顯現存在於投資方案中之管理彈性的價值。此外，於本論文中亦提出一個計算投資方案的模糊擴張淨現值(fuzzy expanded net present value, FENPV)之平均數的方法，此方法可將投資方案之模糊擴張淨現值因為管理彈性之避險效果而呈現右偏分配的特徵反映出來。最後本論文中亦對於複合選擇權的價值做進一步的探討。

關鍵字

方案評估 ； 實質選擇權 ； 模糊數 ； 不確定性 ； 彈性

並列摘要

The typical approaches to investment project evaluation are based on discounted cash flows (DCF) analysis which provides measures like net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR). DCF-based approaches exhibit two major pitfalls. One is that DCF parameters such as cash flows cannot be estimated precisely in an uncertain decision making environment. The other one is that the values of managerial flexibilities in investment projects cannot be exactly revealed through DCF analysis. Both of them would have significant influence on strategic investment projects evaluation. This dissertation proposes a fuzzy binomial approach that can be used in project evaluation under uncertainty. The proposed approach also reveals the value of flexibilities embedded in the project. Furthermore, this dissertation provides a method to compute the mean value of a project’s fuzzy NPV. The project’s fuzzy NPV is characterized with right-skewed possibilistic distribution because these flexibilities retain the upside potential of profit but limit the downside risk of loss. Finally, this dissertation discusses the value of multiple options in a project.

並列關鍵字

Project Evaluation ； Real Options ； Fuzzy Numbers ； Uncertainty ； Flexibility

參考文獻

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