債券基金投資知識平台之建立

Bond funds investment knowledge system

林蔚(Wei Lin)

指導教授 ： 李鴻璋

淡江大學/商管學院/資訊管理學系碩士班/碩士(2015年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2015.00107

摘要

投資債券基金的收益穩定、流通性高，近年來國人投資該類基金的比例越高，從2008年投資境內債券基金的人數為17,293人到2013年77,058人，投資人數成長了346.6%。投資境外基金國人持有金額由2008年的773,107百萬元到2013年1,466,061百萬元，成長率達89.63%。明顯的看出來投資債券基金的人數以及投資額明顯的上升。雖說國人投資比例提升，但在選擇基金的知識不足，大多以理專的建議作投資，對一般民眾做投資時的選擇並不多，也有可能投資不符合投資者需求的項目。
本研究重新分類、整理，歸納對債券基金影響的因素，如殖利率、違約率、經濟發展強弱、匯率強弱等等因素，依照這些因素建置一個以債券基金為知識庫－債券投資推論系統BIKS(Bond Investment Knowledge system)，透過BIKS系統以及使用者輸入的狀況說明，推薦投資者一個較中立、客觀的第三方建議，供投資者做為參考。
為測試BIKS的系統知識的有效性，我們設計出三種實驗情境，並由BIKS系統得出的結果，該結果與專家進行評估跟分析，發現專家大方向的意見與BIKS得出來的結果是一致的，所以初步的結果認為BIKS的結果有相當高的實用性。

關鍵字

債券基金 ； 知識工程

並列摘要

Bond funds provide both high liquidity and stable revenue for investors. In recent years, higher growth in people invests on bond funds than they do for another type of investments. For instance, the number of Taiwanese’s investment on bond funds increased from 17,293 to 77,058, in year 2008 to 2013. The growth rate is 346.6% in five years. At the same time, the total amount that invested on bond funds, for both domestic and foreign ones, increased from 773,107 M to 1,466,061 M in year 2008 to 2013. Total growth rate reached to 89.63%.
Although the number of people who invested on bond funds increased significantly, the way to choose bond funds relies solo on broker’s recommendation. This situation would leave wholly the issues to the broker’s consideration and might be little concern about the investors themselves.
This research aims to reclassify the factors that would affect bond funds, such as yield to mature, default rates, exchange rates, and each economic growth rates for each country. These factors for world-wide countries would be huge. By knowledge engineering, we build a USA-central model for all countries. According to this model, we build up a Bond Investment Knowledge system (BIKS) which mark the both the expert view among the factors and the investors attributes. After capturing the data through system, BIKS could come up with investment suggestions for investors.
To test the validity of BIKS, we virtually built three economic situations in the BIKS. The BIKS came up with the corresponding suggestions for investors in these three situations. All the economic situations and the corresponding suggestions were given to the domain expert to examine the validity. As a result, BIKS indicated high consistence with the domain expert.

並列關鍵字

Bond funds ； knowledge system

參考文獻

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中文文獻