經濟成長與環境資源的關係─以枯竭性資源為例

本論文的主旨為探討在經濟成長當中，枯竭性資源(特別是石油)對於經濟成長會帶來什麼樣的影響。首先以靜態分析的手法，研究石油的供給及需求曲線的形狀，以及具體估算日本石油的價格的需求彈力值。並對石油儲蓄對於市場均衡點的變化做分析。接著以動態分析的手法，對Hotelling法則以及石油枯竭作探討，本研究發現日本的石油價格並沒有按照Hotelling法則做變化，並對於獨占及不確定性等兩個可能原因做了探討。在石油枯竭的小節中，了解到石油枯竭分為經濟性及物理性，若石油價格高過其他能源時，將會被Backstop資源代替，最終的狀況下石油將有停止生產的可能性。在第三章當中，以Cake-eating Model為主要架構，探討最適消費路徑，以及當石油枯竭時經濟成長率會有什麼樣的變化。本論文在Cake-eating Model的生產函數中加入外生型技術成長，計算結果發現，此模型中消費成長率取決於外生型技術成長率及時間偏好率的大小關係，另外，此模型在石油枯竭的狀況下，經濟成長率也會為負數，代表無法維持經濟成長。並代入資源集約度的數學式，發現資源集約度將以外生型技術成長率的比率下滑。接著，Cake-Eating Model的生產函數中再加入資本，在此模型中消費成長率取決於資源價格的成長率以及時間偏好率的大小關係，另外，若假設Hartwick法則成立，就算石油枯竭，消費者也可以維持一定的消費水準。最後，外生型技術成長及資本加入Cake-Eating Model中，此模型中消費成長率取決於資源價格成長率、外生型技術成長率及時間偏好率，另外，若假設Hartwick法則成立，在此模型中就算石油枯竭，經濟成長率仍可保持為正數。

關鍵字

Hotelling法則； Hartwick法則；經濟成長；枯竭性資源；代替

並列摘要

This thesis used the static analysis to figure out the demand curve and the supply curve in oil market. Furthermore, calculated the price elasticity of demand, and discussed that how the stockpile of oil to affect the market of oil. This thesis also used the dynamic analysis, proven that Hotelling’s Rule is not fit in Japan’s oil market. This thesis used Cake-eating Model as the basic model, tried to figure out the path of consumption. At first, put the exogenous technology growth rate into the production function. and figure out that the path of consumption is determined by exogenous technology growth rate and rate of time preference, oil will be exhausted and consumption growth rate is minus. Then, found that resource-intensive determined by exogenous technology growth rate. This thesis put capital into the production function, and found that the path of consumption is determined by the rate of resource’s price growth and the rate of time preference. Then, if Hartwick’s rule is true, economic growth rate of this model is 0.if put capital and exogenous technology growth rate into the production function, the path of consumption is determined by resource’s price growth rate,the rate of time preference and exogenous technology growth rate.Then, if Hartwick’s rule is true, economic growth rate is plus.

並列關鍵字

Hotelling's Rule ； Hartwick's Rule ； Economic Growth ； Exhaustible Resources ； Substitute.

參考文獻

8.　John M. Hartwick(1977)“Intergenerational Equity and the Investing of Rents from Exhaustible Resources,”The American Economic Review,Vol.67,No5.

2.　David N.Weil(2008)Economic Growth, Pearson Education 、早見弘、早見均訳(2008)『経済成長』ピアソン桐原

1.　Charles I. Jones(1999)Introduction to Economic Growth, W. W. Norton、香西泰監訳(1999)『経済成長理論入門』日本経済新聞社

4.　Harold Hotelling(1931)“The Economic of Exhaustible Resources,”The Journal of Political Economy,Vol.39,No2.

5.　J. A. Krautkraemer(1985)“Optimal Growth Resource Amenities and the Preservation of Natural Environments,”Review of Economic Studies, LⅡ.

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經濟成長與環境資源的關係─以枯竭性資源為例

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