汽車維修業之顧客價值分析

Customer Value Analysis of the Automobile Maintenance Industry

吳俊毅(Jiun-Yi Wu)

指導教授 ： 鄭啟斌

淡江大學/管理學院/資訊管理學系碩士班/碩士(2010年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2010.00131

摘要

由於加入WTO與經濟景氣下滑，台灣汽車產業近年來面對產值下滑的問題，造成汽車服務行業利潤結構的變化。車輛維修取代新車銷售成爲原廠汽車經銷商最主要的利潤來源，也使得車輛維修成爲經營管理的重點。但除了國內大量的小型維修廠外，該產業同時面臨國際品牌異常激烈的外在競爭。如何達到規模經濟進而擴大市場佔有率成為當今台灣原廠汽車維修業之重要課題。由調查中發現此一行業存在顧客流失率高的問題，因此如何為該行業擬定適當的行銷策略以提升顧客的忠誠度便成為本研究的主要目的。
本研究之研究方法為藉由顧客區隔找出不同顧客群的特徵，並針對不同顧客群依其特徵設計行銷策略。在顧客區隔中所考量的因素包括顧客之現有價值與未來價值，以及顧客之RFM評分。其中顧客現有價值為顧客對於公司的歷史累積貢獻，而未來價值則為顧客未來貢獻之預測。本研究考慮未來情境之不確定性，因此以馬可夫鍊來模擬顧客之可能消費行為，並建立在不同行為下的消費金額預測模型，顧客之未來價值則為在各種不同情境發生機率下的期望值。為了建立預測模型，本研究使用決策樹來估計顧客流失率並據以預測顧客之忠誠年數，同時以類神經網路建立顧客特性與其消費金額間的關係以預測顧客未來之貢獻。
本研究以某原廠汽車維修廠為研究對象，應用本研究所提出之方法為該廠之顧客進行集群分析，並提出適合不同顧客群之行銷策略。

關鍵字

汽車維修業 ； 顧客終身價值 ； 顧客區隔 ； 馬可夫鍊 ； 決策樹

並列摘要

After joining WTO and the economic recession in recent years, the sales of Taiwan’s automobile industry has been declining, and hence leads to a change of profit structure in this industry. Automobile maintenance and repair services have replaced car selling and become the major profit source of automobile dealers, and thus shifts management attention in this industry to the operations of automobile maintenance and repair services. However, the original brand maintenance factories not only face the furious competition from numerous small-sized maintenance shops but also from the international brand maintenance factories. Thus, how to expand their market share to reach an economic scale has become a challenge to the original brand maintenance factories in Taiwan. An investigation by the present study found a high customer churn rate is prevailing in this industry. Hence, this study attempts to formulate suitable marketing strategies to promote customer loyalty for the original brand maintenance factories.
The present study identifies customer characteristics by customer segmentation, and then designs various marketing strategies for customers with different characteristics. The factors considered in such segmentation include the current value and the future value of a customer, as well as the customer’s RFM score. In which, customer current value is defined as the cumulated contribution of a customer in the past to the company, while customer future value is a prediction of a customer’s lifetime contribution to the company. Considering the uncertainty of a customer’s future behaviors, the present study uses Markov chain to model customer behaviors in the future, and predicts a customer’s contribution under a certain consumption behavior. As a result, the future value is an expectation of the probabilistic returns of a customer. The prediction of customer behaviors involves a decision tree technique to predict customer churn rate and to estimate the customer’s loyalty years based on the predicted churn rate. Moreover, a neural network model is used to predict the contribution of a customer under a particular consumption behavior.
The proposed approach is demonstrated by a case study, which is an original automobile maintenance factory in Taiwan. Customer segmentation is carried out for this company, and various marketing strategies are proposed accordingly.

並列關鍵字

Automobile maintenance and repair industry ； Customer lifetime value ； Customer segmentation ； Markov chain ； Decision tree

參考文獻

3. 台灣區車輛工業同業公會，台灣車輛工業產值統計表，http://www.ttvma.org.tw/cht/industrial-survey.php#3，2010

8. 李蔚局，台灣原廠汽車維修產業研究與事業經營策略分析，國立中央大學管理學院高階主管企管碩士班碩士論文，2007

2. Blattberg, R. C., Malthouse E. C. & Neslin S. A. Customer Lifetime Value: Empirical Generalizations and Some Conceptual Questions, Journal of Interactive Marketing, 23(2), pp.157-168, 2009.

5. Dwyer, F. R. Customer lifetime valuation to support marketing decision making. Journal of Interactive Marketing, 11(4), pp. 6–13, 1997.

6. Dwyer, F. R. Customer lifetime profitability to support marketing decision making, Journal of Direct Marketing, 3, pp.8-15, 1989.