預測航空業破產-Binary Logit與LDA分析之比較

Predicting Airlines Bankruptcies – A Comparison of Binary Logit and LDA Analysis

康雅欣(Ya-Hsin Kang)

指導教授 ： 萬哲鈺

淡江大學/商學院/經濟學系碩士班/碩士(2012年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2012.00232

摘要

在過去的三十年中，有許多的專家學者會以財務比率進行預測公司破產的預測，而在早期針對預測破產此一議題進行研究的學者Altman (1968)，他的研究成為了後來許多對於各項不同產業進行破產所參考的文獻。本研究是依循著Pilarksi and Dinh (1999)修改自Altman所設計之模型而改良的P-score進行航空業破產之預測。本研究的研究對象為美國過去十年資本額前二十大從中挑選出十三家之航空業，所考量的變數除了財務變數外，也會考量其他經濟變數，並且以Binary Logit以及LDA兩種方式進行估計，進而比較哪一種方法較可正確預期破產。

關鍵字

航空業 ； 預測破產 ； Binary Logit Analysis ； Linear Discriminant Analysis(LDA)

並列摘要

Much has been learned over the past thirty years about the subject of predicting bankruptcy of corporations using financial ratios. The early work of Altman (1968) set the stage for many subsequent studies of the topic using data from various industries. This study considers a modification of the original Altman model made by Pilarksi and Dinh (1999) involving a P-score to study the prediction of the bankruptcies of airlines. The paper here uses the most recent financial data on airlines from the US and includes other factors such as SARS and terrorism. It also makes use of a version of binary logit regression and attempts to determine the probability that a particular airline will go bankrupt. We also compare the Binary Logit Analysis and Linear Discriminant Analysis(LDA) to know which one is better on prediction of bankruptcies.

並列關鍵字

airlines ； predicting of airlines ； Binary Logit ； Linear Discriminant Analysis(LDA)

參考文獻

黃振豊與呂紹強 (2000)，「企業財務危機預警模式之研究-以財務及非財務因素構建」，當代會計，第一卷，頁19-40

楊馥如、顧廣平與董建中(2005)，我國上市櫃公司減資後長期績效評估，績效與策略研究，第二卷 第二期，頁35-55

Altman, E., 2000. Predicting finance distress of companies: revisiting the Z-score and ZETA models. Journal of Finance, 7, pp.18–20.

Altman, E.I., 1983. Exploring the Road to Bankrupcy. Journal of Business Strategy, 4(2), pp.36-41.

Altman, E.I., 1968. Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy. The Journal of Finance, 23(4), pp.589-609.