國際制裁伊朗核武計畫下歐盟-伊朗經貿發展

Trade relationship between EU and Iran under international sanctions on Iran's nuclear program

邱俠(Hsia Chiu)

指導教授 ： 郭秋慶

淡江大學/國際研究學院/歐洲研究所碩士班/碩士(2017年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2017.00202

摘要

論文提要內容：
2002年伊朗內部未申報的核子設備被美國衛星曝光，引發國際社會關注伊朗核子計畫與用途，以EU3（包含英國、法國、德國）為首的外交部長與歐盟外交暨安全政策高級代表與伊朗展開談判，而後逐步擴大成五常加一對伊朗的談判局勢，並於2013年達成JCPOA協定，2016年聯合國與歐盟對伊朗撤除核子項目的經濟制裁，伊朗與歐盟也開始透過經貿活動加深彼此的外交關係。歷經長達14年的全面性經濟制裁，面臨制裁中止的伊朗如何重新與歐盟建構夥伴關係?確保核武使用安全的JCPOA協議實行下，雙邊的互動對於彼此的利益有何影響?雙邊又有哪些潛在發展合作的機會?

本研究以伊朗在國際制裁下與歐盟的經貿發展為研究標的，以歷史暨政策研究法分析；一、探悉伊朗核子危機事件的沿革；二、前政府在政策運作上的缺失，導致伊朗外交與內政陷入癥結，改向西方國家妥協的原因；三、歐盟作為與伊朗核子談判中的重要角色，本論文分析歐盟與伊朗在簽訂JCPOA協議後，雙邊經貿發展的可能性，以及透過經貿發展更全面性的互動及對話；四、分析在進入後制裁時期，伊朗與歐盟經貿關係面臨之挑戰，藉以了解伊歐建立夥伴關係整體的概況。

經過廣泛的研究與分析後，作者發現伊歐關係中，歐盟藉由經貿活動以維繫伊朗在核子安全的目的，並試圖以進一步的對話，來促進區域穩定、民主與人權等價值觀的普及。但伊歐的經貿發展作為雙邊關係發展的基礎，卻受到內部政權、體制衰敗與其他國際行為者牽制的影響，進而導致雙邊關係發展受到潛在威脅。未來，伊朗該在政策上提升統一性，整治國內經濟問題，並拓展區域內外交關係。而歐盟則需建立更獨立的對話渠道，並靈活運用多邊主義形式，來延續與伊朗以安全政策為核心目標的夥伴關係。

關鍵字

JCPOA ； 聯合全面行動計畫 ； 核武 ； 多邊主義 ； 伊朗

並列摘要

In 2002 Iran's previously undeclared nuclear facilities was exposed in USA satellite images, grabbed world’s attention to nuclear plan of Iran. EU3 (including Britain, France, Germany) and the EU High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy plays significant roles of negotiation toward the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on Iran's nuclear program.. Iran and the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council – the United States, France, Britain, Russia and China – plus Germany signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action(JCPOA) in 2013 and started implementing it in January 2016. The EU and UN nuclear-related economic and financial sanctions against Iran were terminated in line with the JCPOA. EU and Iran have increased their financial cooperation gradually, largely through oil, deepening their diplomatic relationship through growing trade and bilateral investment. After most sanctions against Iran are lifted, how does Iran re-establish a partnership with EU? To ensure Iran's adherence to the JCPOA, how to promote mutual interests through cooperation? What kind of trade oppourtunites between EU and Iran?

This thesis centers on the Iran-EU economic and trade. Historical approach combined with Policy analysis approach is adopted in this research. The paper consisted of four main sections: looking into the factors influencing Iran’s strategic on sign the nuclear agreetment with P5+1, analyzing the impacts of economic legacy from former government, which changed Iran’s diplomatic policies, probing into what role for the EU in the negotiation with P5+1, as well as the possibility between Iran and EU to develope futrher relation beyond nuclear dailogue, and investigating oppourtunities and chalenges for EU – Iran trade relations in post – sanctions era.

According to this research, EU through economic and trade activities to maintain Iran's nuclear safety purposes, and try to develop further dialouge like demovracy and human rights to promote rigional stability, convey values of EU. However the Iran – EU relations influenced by Iran’s political regime type, institutional decay and other countries which regards Iran as hegemonic state, hense hampering the warming of business relations between Iran and Europe. On the basis of the analysis mentioned in the chapters and sections above, there are suggestions summarized in this paper. At first Iran should unify policies, rectify domestic and economic problems, Secondly Iran must rebuild diplomatic relaitons with neighboring countries. Third EU can establish a more independent communicational to expand various dialogue with Iran, fourth to use multilateralism mechanism flexible for deepen partnership with Iran with the security target.

並列關鍵字

European Union ； Iran's Nuclear ； JCPOA ； Iran Program ； Joint Comprehensive Plan of Act ； Iran Sanctions

參考文獻

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