北韓核武發展對區域安全影響之研究(2011-2018)

朝鮮半島安全情勢是二戰後不可忽視的重點地區，北韓建國領導人金日成為延續國家政權與發展，在前蘇聯支援下奠定發展核武的基礎，1993年退出《核子武器不擴散條約》(NPT)，引發第1次核武危機；金正日時期積極進行彈道飛彈試射及兩次核試驗，自稱為擁核國家；金正恩2011年底接任後，確立核武與經濟發展並進戰略，共進行4次核試驗及洲際彈道飛彈研發，嚴重威脅著區域安全與穩定。北韓操作戰爭邊緣策略，吸引美國談判，主導中共、南韓、日本、俄羅斯及聯合國以獲得最大利益，尤其金正恩堅持核試與飛彈試射獲得相當進展。本文檢視北韓各領導人執政時期之核武發展歷程，著重於金正恩時期的政策、核武與飛彈發展現況及其對區域安全的影響，瞭解國際社會對北韓核武問題反應，以掌握東亞情勢發展及綜整對我國國家安全政策規劃啟示與建議。

關鍵字

北韓核武；金正恩；核武發展；朝鮮半島；區域安全

並列摘要

Status of Korean Peninsula has become an unignorable security indication after the Second World War. Kim Il-sung, the founding father of Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), laid the foundation of DPRK nuclear development with the assistance of USSR. The first nuclear crisis was ignited in 1993 after the DPRK withdrew from the “Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)”. In Kim Jun-il era, DPRK aggressively conducted ballistic missile tests and two nuclear tests, and self-claimed a nuclear-weapon state. Since taking office in 2011, Kim Jun-un affirms a strategy of concurrent development in nuclear weapons and economy. His four nuclear tests and R&D of ICBM have posted an imminent threat to regional security and stabilization. DPRK manipulated a brinkmanship strategy to attract the US for negotiation and lead PRC, Korea, Japan, Russia and the UN in its favor. Kim’s insist on nuclear tests and missile tests have made obvious achievements. This article reviews nuclear developments during the Kim dynasty and focuses on Kim Jun-un’s policies, nuclear and missile developments, his impact on regional security and international reactions to DPRK nuclear issues. It is to understand the trend of East Asia situation and provide messages and suggestions to our national security policy making.