用情境論資本主義的未來: 資本主義的心理依附與其前景終結之衡突

An inquiry on the futures of capitalism using scenarios: The conflict between the psychological attachment to capitalism and the prospect of its dissolution

安利(Alessandro Fergnani)

指導教授 ： 霍珍妮

淡江大學/教育學院/未來學研究所碩士班/碩士(2017年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2017.00310

摘要

本論文將揭示資本主義的心理原因，以解釋個人對資本積累的依賴並進行爭辯。這種依附正在產生一種全球性的意識形態衝突，因為它與指向資本主義解體的社會，技術和經濟趨勢相衝突。 最後，它將為資本主義的未來創造四種情景，以便探討今後如何展開這種衝突的不同方式，並找出一個可以克服這一種衝突的最佳方案。

關鍵字

資本主義的未來 ； 心理學 ； 情境 ； 意識形態衝突

並列摘要

This thesis analyses the psychological reasons behind capitalistic practices, it uncovers the mechanisms through which capitalism has contributed to satisfy hardwired human instincts of selfishness, and explains capitalism’s emergence and subsequent legitimization in the global worldview from a psychological standpoint. In view of this analysis, it argues that capitalism is a social instrument with the function of satisfy hardwired psychological requirements through economic activity, and that the psychological attachment to capitalism should be taken into consideration in thinking of its possible futures as a global ideological conflict is emerging between the psychological attachment to capitalism and current trends pointing towards its dissolution.
To analyze the possible ways this conflict might develop in the future, this thesis puts forward four exploratory qualitative scenarios of the future of capitalism using Jim Dator’s scenarios archetypes. In each scenario, the ideological conflict between the psychological attachment to capitalism and the prospect of its dissolution will be manifested in different extents and have different outcomes. A preferable scenario (Transformation) is then identified for its lower level of ideological conflict. In the preferable scenario, thanks to scientific knowledge on the way human nature responds to nudges and incentives, public policy specialists will activate human tendency for respect and reciprocity, and a shift in human understanding towards new economic values will be enacted. Preliminary policy guidelines to achieve this scenario are finally discussed.

並列關鍵字

Futures of capitalism ； psychology ； scenarios ； ideological conflicts

參考文獻

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