台灣實施勞工退休金新制對家戶儲蓄的影響 : Difference-in-Difference 模型分析

The effects of New Labor Pension System on Household Saving : Evidence by Difference in Difference Model.

郭奕岑(I-Tsen Kuo)

指導教授 ： 林彥伶

淡江大學/商管學院/經濟學系碩士班/碩士(2014年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2014.00244

摘要

本研究探討勞工退休金新制的實施對家戶儲蓄的影響。由於台灣人口快速老化，提升老人經濟安全是當前最為重要的議題。勞委會在2005年實施「勞工退休金新制」，相對於過去的舊制，其特點為年資的可接續性。此項改革將會使勞工預期未來財富增加。過去的文獻中曾以全民健康保險政策的實施作為探討，發現將會顯著降低民眾儲蓄。本研究認為勞退的改革更甚於全民健康保險的影響。　　　　
　　我們利用Difference-in- Difference模型估計華人家庭動態資料庫12年的樣本。估計結果顯示：勞工退休金新制的實施將顯著減少家戶的儲蓄，並且隨著教育程度的降低而減少幅度更大。這個結果可以儲蓄的所得彈性來做推論，亦即退休金的財富效果對社經地位較高者而言影響程度相對較小，反之則較大。本研究補充了目前國內對於勞工退休新制相關研究的缺乏，且對於台灣老年經濟安全保障政策的評估提供一份參考。

關鍵字

勞工退休金新制 ； 家戶儲蓄

並列摘要

This paper investigates the effects that the implementation of the new system of labor pension on household savings in Taiwan. Due to Taiwan's aging society, it is the most important issue to improve the economic security of the olds. The "New Labor Pension Mechanism" was implemented in 2005 by Council of Labor Affairs. Relative to the previous system, the new system is characterized by the continuation of working seniority and may increase workers’ expectations of their future wealth.
　Previous literature has explored the implementation of National Health Insurance Policy on savings, and they found NHI has significant negative effects on savings. This study further suggests that the effects of labor pension reform could greater than the NHI’s effect. We use Difference-in-Difference model to estimate a 12-year sample of "Panel Study of Family Dynamics" in Taiwan. Estimation results show that New Labor Pension Mechanism’s implementation significantly reduces household savings and the effects are higher for lower education level workers.

　Explaining by Income elasticity of savings, pension’s wealth effect on those with higher socioeconomic status is relatively small, otherwise, larger. This study supplements the limitation of researches for New Labor Pension Mechanism and could be a reference for Taiwan's old age security policy.

並列關鍵字

The New System of Labor Pension ； Household Saving

參考文獻

陳寬政、林子瑜、邱毅潔、紀筱涵，2009，「人口老化、疾病擴張、與健保醫療費用」，「台灣大學人口學刊」，第39期，頁59-83。

吳佩珊(2008)，「全民健保對家戶預防性儲蓄之排擠效果: Difference-in-Difference5模型分析」，國立暨南國際大學碩士論文。

林世駿(2013)，「我國勞工退休金制度改革之研究」，國立台灣大學政治學系政府與公共事務碩士在職專班碩士論文。

林彥伶(2013)，老年經濟保障對生育率的排擠效果：台灣的實證分析，經濟論文，41(2)，255-295。

Carroll, Christopher D. and, David N.Weil,(1994). "Saving and growth: a reinterpretation," Canegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 133-192, June.