中共《反分裂國家法》之戰略分析

The Strategic Analysis of Communist China's Anti-Secession Law

林鈺炎(Yuh-Yan Lin)

指導教授 ： 王高成

淡江大學/國際研究學院/國際事務與戰略研究所碩士在職專班/碩士(2013年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2013.00301

摘要

1987年臺灣雖然解除戒嚴並開放大陸探親，但於1996年卻爆發臺海危機，使兩岸關係急速冷卻。2000年主張臺獨的民進黨取得政權之後，不斷地以臺獨議題挑釁中共，使中共對兩岸議題之回應處於被動。2003年胡錦濤接任中共國家主席，正式主導中共政局。但面對民進黨2004年總統大選連任獲勝後，中共已深知針對臺獨議題，應化被動為主動回應。因此中共為了反對和遏制臺獨，遂於2005年3月14日通過《反分裂國家法》。
《反分裂國家法》立法通過後，臺灣於2006年及2008年間分別提出「廢統論」與「入聯公投」之臺獨議題。雖然中共不再出現如前大規模之文攻武嚇，但美國卻搶先譴責臺獨議題。顯然地，中共為其國家發展而不受臺獨勢力影響，已成功地運用《反分裂國家法》建構「聯美遏獨」之策略，再運用柔性惠臺政策，促使兩岸關係步入有利於統一之局勢，所以本論文將客觀地探討中共《反分裂國家法》之戰略意涵，以期能彰顯本論文的參考價值。
本研究首先以文獻分析法探究，《反分裂國家法》具有對臺「軟硬兼施」防獨之策略、紓解內部對臺主張動武之壓力及建構「聯美遏制臺獨」之合作等三個戰略意涵。其次發現《反分裂國家法》不但符合李德哈特《間接路線》之戰略論；而且欲營造「美中共管臺海」以防獨之策略，以便不影響中共能優先執行「國家和平發展」之戰略，並為實現和平統一而開創兩岸互動之新格局，。
本研究建議，中臺雙方應弱化民族主義之情懷，以避免戰爭之發生；臺灣應認清小國外交之因應策略及歷史趨勢，並應推動「親美、和中及友日」之國家戰略，尤其是臺灣人民應改變其思維，認清「兩岸問題」與「臺灣前途」是取決於美中臺互動的關係而非臺灣人民所能自行決定也。

關鍵字

反分裂國家法 ； 兩岸關係 ； 廢統 ； 民進黨 ； 共產黨

並列摘要

Although the Taiwan government removed the martial law and allowed Taiwanese to visit their relatives in China in 1987,the Taiwan Strait crisis broke out in 1996 and promptly resulted in the Cross-Strait relation's suspension.The DPP government constantly challenge the China with issues of Taiwan Independence after the Democratic Progressive Party advocating Taiwan Independence took regime in 2000. The China responded those with passivity. In 2003 Hu Jintao took over the Chinese Chairman and formally led the Chinese Communist Party Council but in the face of the Taiwan's presidential election in 2004 Democratic Progressive Party won it again. That the CPC had been deeply aware of managing the Taiwan independence issues should change the passivity as the active response. Accordingly, in order to oppose and suppress the Taiwan independence Chinese Communist Party passed "Anti-Secession Law" on March 14,2005.
After the "Anti-Secession Law" legislately passed, during 2006 and 2008 the Taiwan government respectively raised the Taiwan Independence issues of “Abolition of Unification” and “Referendum for Entering United Nations”.The Chinese Communist Party no longer used a large-scale writing attacks and military intimidation as what it previously had done on Taiwan but U.S. got to the front line to reprimand the Taiwanese independence. Obviously the strategy that CPC used Anti-Secession Law to successfully construct the alliance with U.S. so to suppress the Taiwanese independence from effecting national development, and Then using the policy of flexible benefits to Taiwan again so to promote a beneficial pro-reunification
situation of cross-strait relations. It is this paper objective to explore the strategic implications of Chinese Communist Party "Anti-secession law" and be able to demonstrate the referenced value of this thesis. The study firstly explored with the method of literature analysis that"Anti-secession law" had been three strategic implications that are the strategy of carrot and stick on Taiwan to prevent Taiwan independence、to relieve the pressure from internal assertion of using military force on Taiwan and to construct the co-operative strategy of the alliance with U.S to suppress the Taiwan independence. Secondly, found the "Anti-secession law" not only meets with Strategic theory: The Indirect Approach of Basil H. Liddell Hart but also will build up The United States and China's strategy to jointly control the Taiwan Strait in order not to influence the strategy of national peaceful development preferentially executed and enable to create the interactive new situations of Cross Straits for fulfilling the goal of the peaceful reunification. This study suggests that CPC and Taiwan weaken their nationalist feelings in order to avoid the occurrence of war. However Taiwan should recognize the diplomatic coping strategies of statelet and historical trends, and promote the National Strategy, Close to the United States, Reconciliation with China and Friendship to Japan ,Especially the Taiwanese should change their thinking and pragmatically realize that Taiwan's future is jointly determined by Taiwan ,China ,and U.S. but not Taiwanese alone.

並列關鍵字

Anti-Secession Law ； Cross-strait relations ； Abolition of Unification ； DPP ； CPC

參考文獻

7.《反分裂國家法》，北京：中國民主法制出版社，2005。

國家政策研究基金會，2002年。

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