中國大陸與中東海灣國家石油外交關係研究

The Research on the Oil Diplomatic Relations between China and the Gulf States

鄭啟賢(Chi-Hsien Cheng)

指導教授 ： 趙春山

淡江大學/國際研究學院/中國大陸研究所碩士在職專班/碩士(2014年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2014.00365

摘要

對中國大陸而言，建立一個具有中國大陸特色的石油外交戰略，是今後制定對外政策的重要課題。目前的中國大陸石油外交戰略，在政治方面：石油外交政策已從原本的意識形態轉變為和平發展、獨立自主的路線，並在追求經濟利益目標上，做出政策性調整。在經濟方面：改革開放後中國大陸經濟規模急劇擴大，是造成石油消費快速增加的主要因素，中國大陸正嘗試有效合理的調控市場經濟與對石油等能源依存度。在區域國際關係方面：則因為戰略以及地緣政治的因素，如中、俄之間的互動關係，中、日之間的油源競爭，運輸油源路線受到威脅等，使得中國大陸開始正視石油戰略的重要性。
中國大陸的龐大石油消費量及其採取的競爭行動，無不引起包含美國在內的西方國家嚴重關切，中國大陸的石油外交戰略必須考慮這些因素，以符合國家利益與所謂的和平崛起論調。中國大陸境內原油產能有限，到境外油田採購、爭取原油返國，自然必須承擔政治、外交、經濟、軍事上等不確定風險。假如發生產油地區動亂原油無法輸出、產油國聯手哄抬油價、買得到卻遭對手施以禁運與戰時遭敵封鎖運不回來等情形，中國大陸過度依賴原油的國內經濟市場將立即崩潰，甚至導致政權垮台。相較於先進國家原油戰略儲備存量，中國大陸目前根本無法應付無預警突發性石油危機與海上封鎖，故而近年來才有積極建構戰略儲油之舉。
中東海灣地區是中國大陸主要石油進口來源，此狀況至21世紀都不會有任何改變。伊拉克戰後，中國大陸能源專家指出，搶佔中東市場，運作要有彈性，必須不計得失，要從石油、天然氣乃至經濟全局考量出發，同時與其他國家形成互補多贏局面。不過中國大陸在積極爭奪石油能源的動作上，還是必須考慮到其影響及後果，例如，大量販售軍事武器給予動盪不安的中東，將會為區域帶來不穩定的後遺症。中國大陸在未來策略重心還是會著重於貿易或是經濟發展上，因為這樣的發展策略較不會危害到與美國間的關係。目前中國大陸的石油外交戰略仍在不斷的調整與進行中，因此中國大陸與美國日後的競爭是否會造成彼此間衝突，進而影響中美之間的關係，這些可以成為我們後續研究與觀察的重點。

關鍵字

石油外交 ； 石油戰略 ； 原油戰略儲備 ； 能源依存度 ； 中東海灣國家 ； 中美關係

並列摘要

For China, to develop an oil diplomatic strategy with Chinese characteristics is a crucial task in framing its future foreign policy. Politically, Chinese oil diplomatic strategy has not only transformed from ideology to the path of peaceful development and independence and autonomy, but also made policy adjustment in pursuing its goals of economic benefit. Economically, the substantial expansion of Chinese economic scale after its reform and opening-up policy is the determining factor contributing to the steep increase of oil consumption. From the aspect of regional international relations, China, due to the geopolitics and strategy such as the interactions with Russia and the competition of oil resource with Japan, has started to acknowledge the importance of oil strategy.
Chinese mass oil consumption and its competitive activities have caused serious concern of Western countries, including the US. China, in order to conform to its national interests and its so-called ‘peaceful rise’, needs to take the above-mentioned factors into considerations whilst mapping out the oil diplomatic strategy. Besides, given the limits to its domestic oil production, China, without doubt, has to face political, diplomatic, economic, and military risks while procuring and striving for crude oil from abroad. Under certain dire circumstances, for examples, the turmoil in oil-producing region that disrupts oil transport, or oil price forced up by oil-producing countries, or embargo on oil export to China, or channel blockaded by counterparts in the wartime, Chinese domestic economy which relies heavily on crude oil will be crippled instantly, or the worst, Chinese regime is extremely likely to collapse. In addition, China, if compared to strategic petroleum reserve of developed countries, is unable to manage sudden oil crisis and naval blockade. For this reason, China devotes efforts in building up strategic petroleum reserve in recent years.
The fact that the Gulf region is China’s main oil import resource is not going to change in the 21st Century. Chinese energy expert points out, in order to penetrate Mid-East markets, China needs to operate flexibly without thinking of gain or loss, it also needs to take Chinese oil, natural gas and economy into consideration, and to create complementary and multi-win situations with other nations. China, however, still needs to consider the possible influences and results while competing for oil resources. Selling a great deal of military weapons to countries in turbulent Middle East will destabilize the region for instance. China will keep focusing its strategy on trade or economic development since such a strategy is less likely to damage its relation with the US. The adjustment of Chinese current oil diplomatic strategy is an ongoing process, therefore, whether the competition between China and the US will lead to their confrontation, and then further influence Sino-US relation can be the observation point for further research.

並列關鍵字

Oil diplomacy ； Oil strategy ； Strategic petroleum reserve ； Degree of dependence on energy ； The Gulf states ； Sino-US relation

參考文獻

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