中共「經美制台」戰略之研究（1995.6∼2008.3）－以薄富爾「間接戰略」理論分析

China's Strategy of “Containing Taipei Through Washington”（1995.6∼2008.3）－An Analysis based on Beaufre's “Indirect Strategy”Theory.

張淑慧(Shu-Hui Chang)

指導教授 ： 施正權

淡江大學/國際研究學院/國際事務與戰略研究所碩士在職專班/碩士(2009年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2009.00367

摘要

中共在進行鬥爭時，強調凡事要抓主要矛盾，既然「台灣問題」主要矛盾係分裂與反分裂，故其認為只要解決「台獨」，即可抓住「台灣問題」核心，而關鍵則在於中美關係良窳。尤其在1995、1996年台海危機後，深刻體認美國干預台海問題之決心與實力，自知當下未具備與美國抗衡力量，同時明白唯有和平與穩定國內外環境，方有利推動大陸現代化發展。因此，逐步發展出「經美制台」戰略思維。緣於中共戰略重點是以加強經營與美關係，來達到「制台」目的，與薄富爾「間接戰略」理論中，強調運用非軍事手段，及將衝突以外地區作為決勝戰場等概念相符。故本研究是以薄富爾「間接戰略」理論為分析工具，藉以檢證中共「經美制台」戰略。 本論文除緒論與結論外，內容區分為五章。各章概要說明如下： 第一章首先闡述西方各國戰略思想家「戰略」認知，包含對「戰略」傳統定義、薄富爾認為「戰略」是一種「思想方法」等觀點，並詳述薄富爾「總體戰略」與「間接戰略」關係、釐清「間接戰略」與李德哈特「間接路線」差異，復深入探研「間接戰略」理論內涵。第二章詳述中共「經美制台」戰略發展背景，據此觀察研究該戰略是如何成形。第三章以薄富爾「間接戰略」理論中，「間接壓迫」戰略典型、「精神（心理）力量」為重之戰略公式，及「外部動作」等重要概念，深入闡述中共領導人對「經美制台」戰略認知。第四章以薄富爾提出「間接戰略」中心思想－「外部動作」概念，解析中共「經美制台」戰略落實於政治、經濟、心理及軍事等領域具體作為。第五章針對中共實施「經美制台」戰略各種作為，評估其後續正、負面效應。

關鍵字

間接戰略 ； 經美制台 ； 薄富爾

並列摘要

The Chinese Communist Party has always insisted on holding main contradictory when engaging in political struggle. Since secession and anti-secession were China’s major contradictories in dealing with Taiwan issue, China believes that it could seize the core of the issue by resolving Taiwan-independence concern. In this resolving process, US-Taiwan relations is the key. Seeing America’s determination and strength in tackling Taiwan problems, especially from the lessons of Taiwan Strait crises, China knew its limitations of balancing against the U.S. Meanwhile, China comprehended that stable domestic and foreign environments contribute to its modernization. It accordingly developed a “Containing Taipei through Washington” strategy. The strategy aimed at restraining Taiwan through enhancing US-China relations, and this approach parallels André Beaufre’s “indirect strategy,” which emphasized that victory should be won by paralyzing the adversary through non-military action. Thus, the author tries to adopt Beaufre’s theoretical basis to verify China’s strategy.
This thesis has five chapters. Chapter one explains western strategist’s understanding of strategy, including the traditional definition and Beaufre’s theory that strategy is a method of thought. Further, the author elaborates relations between “total strategy” and “indirect strategy” in Beaufre’s studies, clears up differences between Beaufre’s “indirect strategy” and B.H. Liddell Hart’s “indirect approach,” and researches into the connotation of “indirect strategy.” In chapter two, the author introduces historical background of China’s “Containing Taipei through Washington” strategy and studies how the strategy was formed. Later in chapter three, significant elements in Beaufre’s theory, such as “indirect pressure,” “spiritual strength,” and “exterior maneuver,” would be introduced. Chinese leaders’ cognition of the strategy is also discussed. Fourthly, the author attempts to analyze China’s substantial approaches (e.g. political, economic, psychological and military) in materializing the strategy with Beaufre’s “exterior maneuver,” which serves as the central thought of his “indirect strategy” theory. Finally, with regard to China’s strategic actions to carry out “Containing Taipei through Washington” strategy, the author would make an effort to evaluate consequence, both in positive and negative facets.

並列關鍵字

Indirect Strategy ； Containing Taipei Through Washington ； Andr&eacute ； Beaufre

參考文獻

4.陳亦偉。〈中共「反分裂國家法」的戰略意涵〉。台北：淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所在職專班，碩士論文，2007年6月。

15.洪儒明。《民進黨執政後的中共對台政策（2000.5∼2003.5）》。台北：威秀資訊科技股份有限公司，2004年。

1.王央城。〈回顧2007年中國軍力發展〉。《戰略安全評析》第34期（2008年2月）。

3.王央城。〈美國國防部長蓋茲訪問中國後的美中軍事交流趨勢〉。《戰略安全研析》第32期（2007年12月）。

15.邱延正。〈美日澳安全會議的戰略意涵〉。《戰略安全評析》第30期（2007年10月）。