金融自由化對經濟成長的影響:制度面因素的重要性

Financial Liberalization and Economic Growth: The Role of Institutional Factors

鄭為仁(Wei-Jen Cheng)

指導教授 ： 林佩蒨

淡江大學/商管學院/產業經濟學系碩士班/碩士(2013年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2013.00409

摘要

一國制度面的因素是否會影響金融自由化政策對經濟成長的效果，在理論或實證的文獻上一直沒有比較深入的探討。為探討此一主題，本文以88個國家作為實證樣本，並將其進一步分為21個已開發及68個開發中國家，分別探討制度、金融自由化與經濟成長之間的關係。本研究所使用的金融自由化指標為依據Bekaert et al.(2005)所發展資本市場開放時間所構建的虛擬變數，而資料研究期間為1980年至2004年。我們利用差異中之差異法（difference-in-difference, DID）及自我迴歸遞延分配模型（autoregressive distributed lag model, ARDL）模型來進行估計，而主要的研究成果如下:

1.金融自由化對開發中國家的經濟成長有正面的影響，但對已開發國家則無明顯的效果。

2.加入制度面因素後，發現對開發中國家而言，金融自由化對經濟增長率有強化的效果，其中以法治面
的制度因素對經濟成長率增長效果最強。

3.金融自由化與各項制度指標交叉項的實證結果顯示，制度總合指標及法治面指標與金融自由化指標間
是有交互影響，即整體制度越完善，法治越健全的開發中國家，金融自由化對其經濟增長的效果越強。

4.探討金融自由化及制度面指標的經濟成長的長短期影響，估計結果為金融自由化指標與法律與秩序指
標對成長率有短期影響效果。

關鍵字

經濟成長 ； 金融自由化 ； 制度指標 ； 差異中之差異法 ； 自我迴歸分配遞延模型

並列摘要

The role of institutional factors played in the liberalization-growth nexus has been rarely investigated in the past theoretical or empirical studies. With this concern, this thesis uses a sample of 88 countries, with 21 developed and 67 developing countries, over the 1980 -2004 period to investigate the relationship between financial liberalization and institutional factors and their effects on economic growth. We apply the difference-in-difference (DID) model and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to the data. The main finding of this research are as followers:

1.Financial liberalization has a positive influence on economic growth in developing countries but no such positive effect has been found in developed countries.

2.The growth effect of financial liberalization in developing countries seems to be enhanced after controlling for institutional quality

3.The empirical evidence from the estimates for interaction term of institutional factors and financial liberalization index shows that those developing countries with higher institutional quality will have higher growth rate after adopting a more open financial liberalization policy.

4.Financial liberalization, with additional consideration of institutional factors, seems to exert only short-run effect on economic growth.

並列關鍵字

Economic growth ； official liberalization ； Institutions ； DID ； ARDL

參考文獻

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Bekaert , G., Harvey, C.R., and Lundblad, C., (2005), “ Does financial liberalization spur growth?,” Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 77 , pp.3-55.

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