中國新能源發展研究

能源是人類生存與文明發展不可或缺的重要物質，亦是社會進步和經濟成長的必備元素。中國自1978年鄧小平推動改革開放以來，經過三十餘年的成長，目前已躍昇為世界第二大經濟體，同時也是世界最大貿易出口國。但是，經濟快速增長必然伴隨著能源大量消耗，中國自也無法例外。在煤碳、石油、天燃氣三大傳統化石能源中，除了煤碳外，其餘兩種中國的蘊藏量並不豐富。2012年，中國石油的對外依賴度已接近60％，換言之，中國未來經濟的發展，嚴重受到能源缺乏的制約，中國的能源危機已迫在眉睫，隨時都可能面臨能源安全供應問題，而中國該如何妥善因應此一嚴峻情勢？是否該全力發展新能源，俾彌補自身能源的不足，正是本研究主要的動機與目的。中國除了面臨能源不足的危機外，另一更大的挑戰是全球對於溫室氣體排放引起氣候暖化問題的關注，中國身為世界最大二氧化碳排放國，自也無法置身度外，必須為控制和減緩氣候暖化盡最大努力。於是，中國就陷入進退維谷的困境。一方面既要大量消耗能源快速發展經濟，俾能及早晉身中等水準已開發國家之林；另方面亦須推動節能減碳保護環境，以便為降低二氧化碳數量的國際共識盡一份責任。而中國達成節能減碳的關鍵手段，唯有全力發展清潔乾淨的新能源取代高污染的化石能源才是唯一的方法。本研究全面分析探討風能、太陽能、水能、核能、生物質能、地熱能、海洋能、頁岩氣、可燃冰、氫能等十種中國全力發展的新能源的發展條件、現況與前景，並闡述中國能源的供需現況與節能減碳與低碳轉型政策，最後用數據證明發展新能源能否協助中國達成減碳目標？及發展新能源能否協助中國彌補能源缺口？

關鍵字

溫室氣體；節能減碳；化石能源；新能源；核能；頁岩氣；可燃冰；氫能

並列摘要

Energy is the indispensable vital resource for civil development and survival of human beings; it is also a necessary element for social progression and economic growth. Since Xio-Ping Deng promoted revolution and openness in China from 1978, the development in the past thirty years have made it the second largest economic entity in the world and the largest trade export country. However, the speedy economic growth often comes with mass energy consumption which China is not an exception. From three major traditional fossil energies of coal, petroleum and nature gas, only coal has abundant preservation in China but not the other two. China’s overseas oil dependency in 2012 is already close to 60%, in other words, future economic development in China is severely limited by energy insufficiency. Energy crises in China is happening in the near future; and safe supply of the energy is an issue that could occur anytime. How China can adapt such stringent situation? The objective of this study is to explore if China should develop new energy in full scale to compensate insufficient domestic energy reservation. On top of energy crisis, another even more prominent challenge is the global attention of climate change by greenhouse gas emission. As the second largest country of carbon emission, China cannot stand aside but offer maximum endeavor on the control and mitigation of climate changes. Under such situation, China is in a dilemma. While it needs to consume mass energy to boost economic development and put it on the medium level of developed country much sooner, it also needs to promote energy saving, carbon reduction and environment protection to be responsible to international consensus of carbon reduction. The key measurement for China to meet the goal of energy saving and carbon reduction, is devote full attention on clean new energy development to replace highly polluted fossil energy as the only means. This paper engage comprehensive review on the status and prospects of ten new energy development in China with full scale such as wind energy, solar energy, hydraulic energy, nuclear energy, biomass, geothermal energy, ocean energy, shale energy, gas hydrate, and hydrogen energy. Current energy supply and demand status and policies on energy-save and emission-abate plus low carbon transition are also depicted here. Evidence data are presented here to evaluate feasibility of new energy development to fill in energy shortfall.