混合車流中機車運動推進模式之研究-以臨近路口與紅燈號誌為條件

The Study of A Motorcycle Motion Model in Mixed Traffic-Under the Conditions of Red Signal on the Approach of Intersection

張正達(Cheng-Ta Chang)

指導教授 ： 范俊海

淡江大學/管理學院/運輸管理學系碩士班/碩士(2012年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2012.00639

摘要

過去研究機車推進行為中，觀察範圍多以道路路段為主，然而機車以中高速行駛於路段時較不容易觀察出機車真正之駕駛行為，因此唯有讓機車處於低速且道路狀況干擾多之情況下，才能使機車之特殊駕駛行為明顯發生。因此本研究以臨近路口且紅燈號誌為條件，並以格子的概念描述機車推進行為，最後考慮機車周圍之空間及心理因素之領地效應，構建出真實車流中機車運動推進行為之模式。模式結果顯示，導致機車改變方向之影響範圍以機車前方、右方及右前方為主；代表機車於本研究之條件下行駛時，會觀察這三個範圍內是否有其他車輛會影響本車，再決定下一步之推進行為；意謂著機車以前方及右前方作為推進方向的可能性較高。本研究將模式應用於預測機車鑽隙行為，其預測率為83%。若屏除因駕駛者心理因素產生之特殊駕駛行為，則利用本模式預測機車鑽隙行為確實有其可行性。

關鍵字

機車運動推進模式 ； 格子 ； 領地效應 ； 多元邏輯斯迴歸

並列摘要

Past research motorcycle motion behavior,the observed range and more to the road sections in the main,however motorcycle at high speed in the stretch of road less easily observed the motorcycle real driving behavior,so the only motorcycle in the low-speed and road conditions interfere with more of the other elements,the special motorcycle driving behavior occurred significantly.In this study, near the intersection and red light signal conditions,and describe the concept of lattice motorcycle motion behavior,and finally consider the motorcycle around the space and territory effect of psychological factors to build a motorcycle movement to promote the real traffic behavior patterns.The model results show that the sphere of influence of the motorcycle to change the direction of the motorcycle in front of the right and the right front of the main;traveling under the conditions of this study on behalf of the motorcycle will be observed that these three areas,whether there are other vehicles will affect the car,and then decide the next step of motion behavior;means side and right in front of the motorcycle before the higher the possibility of motion direction.In this study,the model used to predict the motorcycle drill gap behavior,the prediction rate of 83%.If you dismiss the special driving behavior due to psychological factors of the driver,then use this model to predict motorcycle drill gap does have its feasibility.

並列關鍵字

Motorcycle motion model ； Lattice ； Territorial effect ； Multiple logistic regression

參考文獻

34.黃韻芝，「台閩地區道路交通事故之研究」，國立中央大學統計研究所碩士論文，民國95年6月。

30.鐘炳煌，「應用汽車駕駛模擬系統從事高速公路加速車道併入行為之研究-以類神經網路為分析工具」，國立成功大學交通管理科學研究所碩士論文，民國91年6月。

13.林育瑞，「利用類神經網路構建機車車流模式之研究」，國立成功大學交通管理學系研究所碩士論文，民國91 年。

25.林宏達，「處理跟車及變換車道之串接式模糊推論系統」，元智大學電機工程學研究所碩士論文，民國91年6月。

38.Gazis, D. C., R. Herman, and R. B. Potts,“Car-Following Theory of Steady-State Traffic Flow”, Operations Research, Vol. 7, pp.499-505, 1959.