所得不均度對生育的影響

The impact of income inequality on fertility

邱薏慈(Yi-Ci Chiou)

指導教授 ： 胡登淵

淡江大學/商管學院/產業經濟學系碩士班/碩士(2015年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2015.00473

摘要

本研究在考量生育共同衝擊下探討所得不均度對生育的影響，資料取自世界105 國1991 年至2012 年共二十二年間的追蹤資料，使用吉尼指數作為所得不均度的代理變數。除估計世界樣本外，並依人均收入剖析低所得國家、中低所得國家、中高所得國家及高所得國家所得不均度對生育的影響。主要運用考量橫斷面相依的一般性相關效果混合估計法 (Common correlated effects pooled estimation)並估計固定效果、隨機效果模型、動態GMM 模型做為對照。結果顯示：大部分檢定結果支持生育率存在橫斷面相依的假說；由於1991‐2000 年正處於生育率迅速下降及所得不均度大幅提升階段，所以吉尼指數在1991‐2000 年皆對於生育產生負向影響，而2001‐2012 年近12 年期間，生育率下降趨於平緩，吉尼指數於中高所得國家對於生育影響為正，於高所得國家對於生育影響為負。綜上所述，根據一般性相關效果混合估計法之近12 年期間分析結果，假若中高所得國家或高所得國家欲改善生育率，可從改善貧富差距著手 。

關鍵字

生育率 ； 所得不均度 ； 一般性相關效果混合估計法

並列摘要

This study investigates the impact of income inequality on fertility rate in consideration of common shocks. We analyze the panel data, consisting of 105 countries, from 1991 to 2012. In addition to estimating the world model, we
examine the impact of income inequality on fertility rate, by dividing the sample into four groups, according to income per capita‐‐low income countries, lower-middle income countries, upper‐middle income countries and high income countries. We mainly employ the common correlated effects pooled (CCEP) estimator to analyze the impact. We also estimate the fixed‐effects, the random effects, and dynamic panel model of two‐step GMM estimators, in order to compare the differences among four groups. The results indicate that the Gini index has negative impact on fertility rate during 1991‐2000, because the world was at the stage of fertility rate decreasing and income inequality increasing. The Gini index has positive effect on fertility rate for upper‐income countries, but still has negative effect on fertility rate for high income countries, since the fertility rate decreased slowly during the period of 2001‐2012. Most of the results support the hypothesis that the cross‐section dependence of fertility rate exits.
According to the CCEP results, if upper‐middle income countries or high income countries intend to improve fertility rate, they need to solve the wealth gap.

並列關鍵字

Fertility ； income inequality ； common correlated effects pooled estimation

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