金融動盪、資本結構與企業營收：臺灣地區服務產業

本文以臺灣地區服務產業35家公司的營業收入為標的，試圖發掘金融風暴對整體服務業營收的影響，然後探索淨值、長期負債、銀行貸款、應付帳款與資產總額比這四種資本結構與企業因應風暴衝擊能力的關聯性。實證研究採用事件分析法，首先，以營業收入自我迴歸模型為基礎，估計預測模型並計算代表企業表現的營業收入異常值。其次，比較2008年7月前後各24期的營收異常值，觀察各樣本公司營運表現的差異。最後，將35家公司透過縱橫資料分析法，探討資本結構對營收異常值的影響，並利用橫斷面分析法估計資本結構對加總營收異常值之影響，並增列控制變數的影響。實證估計結果顯示，當金融風暴來襲，長期負債比愈高的企業，受負面影響愈大，而在所選定7個服務產業的次產業中，以觀光業表現相對優異，而電子通路業表現則顯著的低下，另大股東持股、經理人總持股亦為在金融風暴期間影響企業營收的重要因素。

關鍵字

企業營收；金融風暴；資本結構；服務產業；事件分析

並列摘要

This article, using the corporate revenues of 35 companies from 7 subservice industries in Taiwan as sample, attempts to uncover the effects of the 2008 financial storm to their revenues and examines the potential capabilities of four capital structures indicators, the ratio of net worth, long term debts, bank loans and account payable to the total assets, in coping with the financial turmoil. The event study methodology is adopted within which the autoregressive model is estimated and served as the predictive tools for computing the abnormal revenues of all 35 companies. Performances of each company during the 24 months after June 2008 event period are examined and compared. The computed individual as well as the cumulated abnormal revenues in the event dates are then regressed on the four capital structure indicators to check for their effects on the performance of the companies studied. Empirical estimates show significant and consistent adverse effects of the long term debts on the performance during the event dates. In other words, companies that rely heavily on long term debts for accommodation suffered the most during the financial crisis, in addition, the tourist industry outperformed the other 6 sub industries in the service sector.

並列關鍵字

Enterprise revenue ； Financial turmoil ； Capital Structure ； Service Industry ； Event Study

參考文獻

Aizenman, Joshua, Yothin Jinjarak and Donghyun Park, (2011). “Capital Flows and Economic Growth in the Era of Financial Integration and Crisis, 1990-2010.” NBER Working Paper No. 17502.

Alessandria, George, Joseph P. Kaboski and Virgiliu Midrigan, (2010). “The Great Trade Collapse of 2008–09: An Inventory Adjustment?” IMF Economic Review, Vol. 58, No. 2, pp. 254-94.

Bems, Rudolfs, Robert C. Johnson and Kei-Mu YI, (2010). “Demand Spillovers and the Collapse of Trade in the Global Recession,” IMF Economic Review, Vol. 58, No. 2, pp. 295-326.

Claessens, Stijn, Hui Tong and Shang-Jin Wei, (2011). “From the Financial Crisis to the Real Economy: Using Firm-Level Data to Identify Transmission Channels,” NBER Working Paper 17360.

Forbes, Kristin J., (2004). “The Asian Flu and Russian Virus: The International Transmission of Crises in Firm-Level Data,” Journal of International Economics, Vol. 63, pp.59–92.

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金融動盪、資本結構與企業營收：臺灣地區服務產業

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