實驗賽局探討多重資訊服務提供者(ISP)之路徑導引策略

Exploring Route Guiding Strategies of Multiple Information Service Providers in a Common Market：An Experimental Game

邱凱資(Kai-Tzu Chiu)

指導教授 ： 董啟崇

淡江大學/管理學院/運輸管理學系碩士班/碩士(2011年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2011.00624

摘要

資訊服務提供者(Information Service Provider, ISP)為ATIS架構裡的一個子系統，ISP在資訊鏈過程中主要扮演角色為提供交通資訊特別是導引資訊給其用路人。在具有多個ISP提供交通路徑導引資訊環境下，除交通資訊與用路人之間行為機制反應關係外，另需考量ISP間可互為競合之交互影響所導致之多重交互作用，如此ISP會如何提供交通路徑導引資訊策略給其用路人實質上是相當值得探討之複雜課題。本研究除思考以賽局理論觀點檢視多ISP提供交通路徑導引資訊之決策行為反應，並構建對應之動態行為模式。
本研究之工作內容主要研擬三個階段進行，第一階段為對目前ISP基本特性進行控制實驗前置分析問卷調查，主要為在進行動態控制模擬實驗前，利用問卷調查以清楚了解目前ISP特性，包括參與資訊鏈中之技術能力並將其進行分類；以及並了解ISP對於交通資訊本身、基本功用之認知與態度，ISP對於公部門、用路人的認知與態度傾向；及於提供交通路徑導引資訊時與其他ISP間之賽局行為傾向等所需的前置作業。第二階段係以汐止-新竹之擬真路網進行10週50日逐日動態控制模擬實驗，藉以觀察在實驗設計下，紀錄ISP在不同階段的賽局元素構成情境條件下其提供交通路徑導引資訊策略與其決策出象。第三階段藉由控制實驗所得決策資料與結果以無異帶區間之概念構建ISP提供路徑導引之策略變換模式，描述各ISP在多元互動環境下提供導引路徑的行為。
本研究第一階段問卷調查結果顯示目前依ISP參與資訊鏈之技術能力分成基本型、加值型與回饋型三種類型；且ISP於提供路徑導引資訊時，基本上是會考慮到還有其他ISP也在提供相同或類似之服務，且認知其綜合多ISP提供路導引資訊策略之結果會影響路網狀態，因此ISP提供交通路徑導引時是顯示具有賽局傾向的。
由第二階段逐日動態控制實驗結果可發現，當未提示任何實驗賽局元素資訊階段，其各ISP所產生之路網出象之變動幅度較大，隨著資訊完整度之提昇，其整體之變動幅度有逐漸縮小之趨勢，而在更增加完全資訊下其變動幅度則趨於較穩定之狀態；此外，檢視ISP逐時路徑導引累積變換次數與其對應之報酬 (定義為接受個別ISP導引用路人平均旅行時間與整體平均旅行時間差距)關係，兩者之間顯示是具有同向之趨勢。
本研究第三階段以逐日與逐時之概念構建ISP提供路徑導引之決策行為模式，且又依實驗賽局提示元素之過程再分別對應資訊完整度、資訊完全度與增列官方路徑導引資訊等構建為三個模式，參數校估結果顯示三者均具有相當高之適合度，即具高度模式解釋能力；且除極少數例外，幾乎全部之置入變數的對應參數均為顯著。而在增列官方路徑導引資訊下，不論是逐日或逐時間點變換模式確實會導致ISP容易變換路徑導引決策傾向，反應出在此狀況下，各ISP鑒於共同市場上之相同公開資訊之競爭反應。本研究所構建之無異帶模式可以成功解釋ISP路徑導引決策變換行為。

關鍵字

資訊服務提供者 ； ISP ； 賽局理論 ； 導引資訊策略 ； 動態控制模擬實驗

並列摘要

Information Service Provider (ISP) is an important role in the Advanced Traffic Information System (ATIS) who provide traffic related information to the subscribed road users or travelers. The information provision strategy is therefore quite critical in that same information regarding traffic condition and guidance direction may actually result in collecting too many users merging toward same road section at the same or very short period time and create unwanted congestion. Being aware of such possible dilemma, this thesis try to initiate an exploration of game-like behavior among ISPs to provide suitable information for route guidance under such uncertain traffic outcomes which may be due to the collective effect of various ISPs’ strategies.
A three-stage study was conducted. In the first stage, pre-game questionnaire was surveyed to recognize the basic characteristics of domestic ISPs such as the market share and technical capability to enable a categorization process. In addition, data including the attitude of ISPs in generalizing their information strategies were included. A series designed scenarios were also employed to examine the possibilities of game-like actions. A day-to-day dynamic controlled simulation experiment was implemented in the second stage to explore in depth the corresponding information and particularly guidance strategy by those selected ISPs being as players in an interactive multi-player game under various scenarios according to an experiment design with information fullness and completeness as two major controlled factors.
The experimental area is of the Northern region of Taiwan, with main studied OD pair where from Taipei to Shintsu with about 6 major routes identified. Observations throughout the ten-week experiment of how various ISPs (five ISPs in total) offer their route guidance for users at different time intervals for users located at different locations during peak hours were analyzed to reveal the pattern of information provision and the resulting payoffs by each individual ISP and as a whole.
Finally, a decision model framework based on indifference band concept was developed at the last stage of this study to capture the evolution of route guidance decisions over day and over time period within the same day respectively. Each model was specified in a time-to-time manner under which three models were calibrated accordingly to match three major periods (lasting several weeks respectively) representing different scenarios of game elements according to experiment design. Results of estimation showed very high degree of goodness-of-fit overall, and almost all parameters were with statistical significance including those associated with game-related variables. These results were in line of the hypothesis that each individual ISP may or may not switch its route guidance evolutionarily over time for considering the presence of other ISPs and revealed information.

並列關鍵字

ISP ； Game ； Information Strategy ； Dynamic Simulation Experiment

參考文獻

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