巴拿馬整體發展之替代性未來

Alternative Futures For Panama's Systematic Development

林啟文(Jose Augusto Polo Lin)

指導教授 ： 陳國華

淡江大學/教育學院/未來學研究所碩士班/碩士(2008年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2008.00555

摘要

本研究目的擬提供巴拿馬政府政策、國際合作關係及社會運動者，以未來學思考角度探索及提供多元替代性未來類型。挑戰現今經濟發展條律，邁向系統化發展。本研究之系統化發展由經濟、人力及永續發展所組成。其中，本研究爰用未來學方法論中的因素層級分析法分析（Causal Layered Analysis）作為後結構組織架構，開創多元替代性未來。因素層級分析中包含巴拿馬文化議題，和經濟發展世界觀之影響概念，對巴拿馬達成系統化發展的直接影響，經由因素層級分析後，藉由雙變數情節分析法的應用，產生替代性未來。其替代性未來情境分析結果有四，第一為風險中的巴拿馬；第二為衰退的巴拿馬；第三為過時的巴拿馬及第四巴拿馬新文化。CLA建構出情境分析，提供更易了解及深層的巴拿馬替代性未來所可能面對的未來。
本研究所展示的巴拿馬系統化發展之結果，是需長期按部就班的規劃完成，最後本研究也提供未來學研究所需使用的批判準則及價值，以提供作為參考。

關鍵字

替代性未來 ； 因素層級分析法 ； 情節分析 ； 系統化發展 ； 巴拿馬

並列摘要

The main purpose of this research is to influence governmental policy, corporate and civil society leaders in Panama to explore different types of alternative futures using the futures thinking approach to challenge the current economic development paradigm and move towards systematic development. In this research systematic development consists of economic, human and sustainable development. Futures studies methodologies such as Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) are introduced in this study as a poststructural framework capable of opening divergent of alternative futures for Panama. The CLA analysis concluded that Panama’s cultural issues, and the effects of the worldviews of the economic development concept have a direct impact in Panama’s achievement of systematic development. After this CLA analysis, the double variable scenario with a CLA incasting method was applied to create alternative futures. The first alternative future was Panama rises, the second one was Panama’s decline, the third one was Panama old and the fourth one was Panama’s new culture. A CLA incasting in each scenario provided a better understanding of the deep stories behind each alternative future Panama could face in a future.

並列關鍵字

Alternative Futures ； Causal Layered Analysis ； Scenarios ； Systematic Development ； Panama

參考文獻

Boulding, E., & Boulding, K. (1995). The Future: Images and Processes. Sage Publications.

Inayatullah, S. (1999). Situating Sarkar: Tantra, macrohistory and alternative futures. Queensland, Australia: Gurukula Press.

Daffara, P. (2004). Sustainable city futures. In Sohail Inayatullah (Ed.), The causal layered analysis (CLA) reader. Graduate Institute of Futures Studies, Tamsui, Taipei, Taiwan 251: Tamkang University Press.

Inayatullah, S. (2004). Causual layered analysis: Theory, historical conext, and case studies. In Sohail Inayatullah (Ed.), The causal layered analysis (CLA) reader. Graduate Institute of Futures Studies, Tamsui, Taipei, Taiwan 251: Tamkang University Press.

Robert, K. (2003). The Natural Step Short Course Programme. In Sohail Inayatullah (Ed.), The causal layered analysis (CLA) reader. Graduate Institute of Futures Studies, Tamsui, Taipei, Taiwan 251: Tamkang University Press.