台灣總體經濟因素對人身保險業營收之探討

The influence of macroeconomic factors on Taiwan's life insurance industry revenue

蔡添量(Tien-Liang Tsai)

指導教授 ： 李命志 ； 李彥賢

淡江大學/商管學院/財務金融學系碩士在職專班/碩士(2016年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2016.00483

摘要

論文提要內容：
本文目的於探討總體經濟因素對人壽保險市場保費收入的影響變化，資料來源為2009至2015年財團法人保險事業發展中心所公佈之人身保險業營業收入資料，以及台灣經濟新報TEJ研究的經濟數據。研究方法係使用以迴歸實證的方式進行分析，實證結果顯示：
一、年金保費收入與領先指標綜合指數、股價指數變動率、勞動參與率，呈現正相關。貨幣供給額-M2指數、CPI年增率、一年期定期存款利率，呈現明顯負相關。二、個人壽險、健康險、傷害險保費收入與台灣各行業受雇員工每月的經常性薪資(台幣)指數，均呈現正相關。三、健康險、傷害險保費收入與台灣勞動參與率，呈現正相關。研究結果顯示總體經濟的好壞與台灣領先指標綜合指數、股價指數變動率、勞動參與率、廣義貨幣供給額-M2指數、CPI年增率、一年期定期存款利率、皆有顯著影響，其中；台灣各行業受雇員工每月的經常性薪資(台幣)指數，對人身保險業營收有顯著影響且最為明顯。

關鍵字

總體經濟 ； 人身保險業營收 ； 多元迴歸分析 ； 年金保險

並列摘要

Abstract：
This study aims to investigate how macroeconomic factors affect the changes in the premium income of the life insurance market. The research data, which involve the revenue data of the life insurance industry disclosed by the Taiwan Insurance Institute from 2009 to 2015 as well as the economic statistics published in Taiwan Economic Journal, are analyzed using a regression method. The results are detailed as follows:
First, annuity premium is positively correlated with the Taiwan Leading Economic Index, rate of change in Taiwan Stock Index, and Taiwan Labor Force Participation Rate, whereas the Taiwan Money Supply M2 Index, annual increase of Taiwan Consumer Price Index, and 1-year time deposit rate of the First Commercial Bank of Taiwan are substantially negatively correlated. Second, the premium incomes of personal life insurance, health insurance, and casualty insurance are positively correlated with the index of monthly regular earnings (in New Taiwan dollar) of Taiwanese employees. Third, the premium incomes of health insurance and casualty insurance are positively correlated with the Taiwan Labor Force Participation Rate. The results indicate that the macroeconomic status significantly affects the Taiwan Leading Economic Index, rate of change in Taiwan Stock Index, Taiwan Labor Force Participation Rate, Taiwan Money Supply M2 Index, annual increase of Taiwan Consumer Price Index, and 1-year time deposit rate of the First Commercial Bank of Taiwan. In particular, the index of monthly regular earnings (in New Taiwan dollar) of Taiwanese employees exerts the most significant effect on the revenue of the life insurance industry.

並列關鍵字

macroeconomy ； revenue of the life insurance industry ； multivariate regression

參考文獻

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