透過您的圖書館登入
IP:44.204.99.5
  • 學位論文

金融動盪,資本結構與公司經營:臺灣地區汽車零組件產業營收

Financial Turmoil, Capital Structure and Corporate Operations:Operating Revenues of Auto-Parts Indurtries.

指導教授 : 賈昭南

摘要


本文以臺灣地區汽車零組件產業上市櫃其中19家公司的營業收入為樣本標的,探索美國次級房貸金融風暴期間內對該產業營業收入的影響性,並將19家公司依零組件功能部位分類,觀察各類產業表現的差異。實證研究首先採用事件分析法,以營業收入自我迴歸模型為基礎,估計預測模型並計算代表產業表現的營業收入異常值,比較2008年6月前後各8季的營業收入異常值,觀察各樣本公司營運表現的差異,其次,運用縱橫資料分析法,分別以事件期間8季營收異常值及經標準化營收異常值為被解釋變數,以淨值比、短期負債比、長期負債比及應付帳款比四種資本結構為解釋變數,進行實證估計,探討資本結構在金融動盪時期對經營表現的影響,最後,再以事件期間累計營收異常值為被解釋變數,以前述四種資本結構之8季平均數為解釋變數,進行實證估計,並再加入區分產業類別之虛擬變數及公司治理相關變數,再次進行實證估計,探討資本結構在金融動盪時期對經營結果的影響。 實證研究的結果,在事件分析法下,19家樣本公司皆受到事件的影響,在事件期間內,唯一一家沒有反彈的是車身系統零組件業的瑞利(板金)公司,其他樣本公司則最快在第10個月後開始反彈,6家樣本公司未恢復到營收預測水準,無法以功能類別絕對代表樣本公司表現的好或壞,但是表現較優的公司多數營業性質與汽車電子相關,另外再加以比較事件前後樣本公司異常值變異數及平均數的變化,觀察樣本公司受到事件影響的程度,其表現較佳的公司仍有2家公司與前述比較之結果相同,輔之以歸納資本結構特徵,表現較好的公司其資本額較小、淨值比皆大於50%、營業收入較資本額之倍數比亦較高,表現較差的公司則相反。 在縱橫資料分析法下,除了應付帳款比對公司的經營表現為正向影響外,其他資本結構皆為負向影響,以短期負債比及長期負債比具統計上之顯著性,說明在金融動盪時期,能自上游供應商處取得融通者似乎有助於在逆境中提升經營效率,其他資金融通方式則對企業之經營為負面影響。在橫斷面分析法下,以四種資本結構測試之結果為負向影響,僅長期負債比不具統計上之顯著性。接著再加入區分產業類別之虛擬變數測試之,則淨值比與長期負債比不具統計上之顯著性,而應付帳款比及短期負債比仍具統計上之顯著性,產業間的差異不明顯,引擎/傳動及轉向系統零組件業(IND1)略佳,車身系統零組件業(IND2)略差。最後,再加入多種公司治理變數測試之,員工人數較多的公司表現較差,或許表示規模大的或產品屬於勞力密集的公司表現較差;董事兼經理人持股比較高的公司同樣表現較差,一般而言,汽車零組件業多屬規模較小而家族控制較高的行業,其持股比例較高代表股權較集中,決策時程較短,而此結果顯示,為整體汽車產業所面臨的外在環境惡劣所致。在這二種控制變數下,四種資本結構變數皆呈現顯著的負面影響,因此可以確定資本結構的影響屬於負面。

並列摘要


This thesis takes the operating revenues of 19 auto-parts makers in Taiwan as sample to examine the effects of four capital structures, the ratios of net worth, long term debt, short term debts and account payables to the total assets, in coping with the financial crisis during the 2008 subprime financial storm. The event studies methodological approach is used for extracting the adverse effects of the aforementioned financial turmoil on the performance of the sample companies while an autoregressive model plays the role of predicting the normal revenues. The abnormal revenues are thereafter computed and analysized. In analyzing the abnormal revenues the performance of the sample companies during the event dates are compared and tested, and the regression analysis which regresses the individual abnormal revenures as well as the cumulated abornal revenues on the four capital sturctur indicators are conducted. Our empirical findings show that relying on both long and short term debts for accomodations during the 24 months period event dates has brought about significant adverse effects to the performance of the companies studied. The relying on account payables brings about negative effects to the companies’performance during the event dates.

參考文獻


Aizenman, Joshua, Yothin Jinjarak and Donghyun Park, (2011). “Capital Flows and Economic Growth in the Era of Financial Integration and Crisis, 1990-2010.” NBER Working Paper No. 17502.
Alessandria, George, Joseph P. Kaboski and Virgiliu Midrigan, (2010). “The Great Trade Collapse of 2008–09: An Inventory Adjustment?” IMF Economic Review, Vol. 58, No. 2, pp. 254-94.
Bems, Rudolfs, Robert C. Johnson and Kei-Mu YI, (2010). “Demand Spillovers and the Collapse of Trade in the Global Recession,” IMF Economic Review, Vol. 58, No. 2, pp. 295-326.
Claessens, Stijn, Hui Tong and Shang-Jin Wei, (2011). “From the Financial Crisis to the Real Economy: Using Firm-Level Data to Identify Transmission Channels,” NBER Working Paper 17360.
Forbes, Kristin J., (2004). “The Asian Flu and Russian Virus: The International Transmission of Crises in Firm-Level Data,” Journal of International Economics, Vol. 63, pp.59–92.

延伸閱讀