戰後日本財政赤字的研究―以1990年代的公共投資為中心―

財政赤字是近年來嚴重的経濟問題，不單只有開發中國家而以;很多已開發的先進國家也有財政赤字的難題。當然日本也沒有例外，雖然日本是世界上的第二大経濟體，仍然存在著有非常嚴重的財政赤字的危機。根據很多經濟上的研究結果顯示，自從全球化以来，財政政策的効果有逐漸降低的傾向。財政政策、特別是由公共投資對需要面的刺激政策所產生的有効性也受到懷疑。所謂的財政赤字政策有経濟安定化的機能。但是任何経濟問題的對應政策，會因為時期和所面臨経濟問題的不同，而在實行之後所產生的效果也會不同。因此想在本次的論文撰寫時:進一步了解財政赤字政策和研究在對應1990年代的平成不景氣時，日本政府以公共投資為主，連續地實施擴張性的財政政策(財政赤字)所扮演的功能和所產生的経濟効果的課題。本論文的研究課題有三項。第一是「財政政策和財政赤字的功能」、第二是「為何日本在90年代會產生巨額的財政赤字」、最後是「財政赤字政策對90年代日本経済產生什麼経済効果」。本論文的研究方法是根據「Mundell＝Fleming理論」和「多變量自己回歸模型」的總體経濟理論和計量方法。但是並不是自己的實證研究分析，而是引用、綜合到目前為止由很多日本學者已經進行的實證研究的分析結果。對戰後日本的財政政策（特別是1990年代的公共投資）的効果進行分析。本論文研究的主要目的是: 驗證財政政策（特別是公共投資）所造成的財政赤字對1990年代的日本経済所產生的影響，和實證財政赤字所衍生出的経濟効果,或是乗數効果的大小。依據構造型多變量自己回歸模型，推算財政政策（公共投資的擴大）對民間需要造成的影響結果;1990年前後以降，財政政策的効果相対地在降低是受到確認的。因為龐大的財政赤字再更一層的拡大之後，由於擔心財政危機在最近的將來會不會發生，導致家計緊縮控制消費支出的非凱因斯効果。也指出隨著將來的経濟狀況不穩定,引起產生儲蓄意向的擴大（也就是消費意向的低下）的可能性。所以不應該將財政政策的重心焦點放在短期的景氣刺激政策，而是從公共支出的効率性的観点出發，要考慮長期的經濟効果，有必要改變政府支出的方式，應該更注重公共投資的品質。本論文的最後研究結果是認為: 在1990年代日本的主要財政政策、特別是巨額的公共投資政策並非是正確的對應經濟政策。

關鍵字

公共投資；構造型多變量自己回歸模型

並列摘要

The financial deficit is serious economic problem in the recent years, not only developing countries, but also developed and advanced countries have difficult problem about financial deficits. Certainly Japan does not have the exception, although Japan is second economic power in the world, still exists has the extremely serious crisis on financial deficit. Showed according to the many findings by economical studies , since the globalization, the effect of financial policy has been decreasing gradually. The financial policy, especially the effect which was produced by stimulus policies to demand surface is also suspected. Financial deficit policy has the economic stabilization function. But any economic policy will produce different effect because of variant age and facing different economic problems. When I write the research,I want to understand the financial deficit policy further and research the countermeasure against the Heisei Recession in the1990s,especially the issue about how kind of role and economic effect that Japanese Government focus on public investment policy primarily, continuously implements the expansionary financial policy. The paper’s research issue has three items. First is The function of financial policy and the financial deficit , second is WhyJapan have the large amount financial deficits in the 90's, finally is What kind of economic effect produced after the financial policies to Japanese economic in the 1990s. According to Multivariate Autoregressive Model, calculated the result which the financial policy (expansion of public investment) impact of private-sector demand.After around 1990, the effect of the financial policy reducing relatively is be confirmed.Because after large amount of financial deficits expand again , the worry that financial crisis will occur in the near future, will cause the non-Keynes effect that family finances will be stringent and controled .Also pointed out that along with the economic condition is unstable, will cause the possibility about the intention of savings expanding (also is declining the intention of consumption). Therefore should not place the center of financial policy on short-term reactivation policy,must from the efficiency of public expenditure, and consider long-term economical effect.Need to exchange the way of public expenditure and should come to attach importance to the quality of t he public investment more.The paper’s final result is:,Japan's main financial policy in the1990s, especially the large amount of public investment policy is not correct economic policy .