評估東盟區域內經濟關係：貿易引力模型中的應用

Assessing ASEAN Intraregional Economic Relations: An Application of the Gravity Model of Trade

何怡芳(Ivonne Hernandez)

指導教授 ： 柯大衛

淡江大學/國際研究學院/國際事務與戰略研究所碩士班/碩士(2015年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2015.00582

摘要

本論文之目的是透過運用國際貿易引力模型中對於包括東協區域範圍內貿易的一般決定因素的分類和統計分析。如果使用得當，貿易引力模型將可以使貿易的預測更加準確，並以此來區分貿易頻繁或貧乏的地區。

本文的分析是聚焦於每個東協成員國的國內生產總值以及衡量在這些國家之間的交易成本，並評估這些因素對東協的影響。影響兩國貿易中最重要的因素被認為是貿易的成本。這些成本可以被認為是相對固定的費用和高度可變成本。它們可以被進一步分類為自然發生和人造的。

降低貿易成本的收益遠大於穩定收入增長的收益。東協及世界銀行就此觀點與本文有相同的理解。然而，許多這些成本是隱藏或潛伏或隱性的，不能被容易地確認或識別。因此，東盟國家必須負起確定並降低這些貿易障礙的責任。

關鍵字

東南亞國協 ； 引力模型 ； 區域內貿易 ； 彈性 ； 面板數據 ； 固定效應回歸

並列摘要

The following Thesis Dissertation objective consisted of the categorization and statistical analysis of the general determinants of intraregional ASEAN trade through the use of the gravity model of international trade. Used properly, the gravity model of trade can predict trade rather accurately and can illuminate where trade is deficient and where it is successful.

Our analysis was done by focusing on each of the member states’ GDP and a general measure of the trading cost between them, moreover assessing their effect on trade in ASEAN. The most important factor affecting bilateral trade is thought to be the cost of doing the trade. These costs can be thought of as relatively fixed costs and highly variable costs. They can be further categorized as natural and man-made.

The gains from reducing trade costs far outweigh the gains from stabilizing income growth. ASEAN and the World Bank appear to understand this point and seem to agree with us on this matter. However, many of these costs are hidden or are latent or implicit and cannot be readily defined or identified. It is therefore incumbent on the countries of ASEAN to work closely and honestly in identifying these impediments and work hard to reduce them.

並列關鍵字

ASEAN ； Gravity Model ； Intraregional Trade ； Elasticity ； Panel Data ； Fixed Effect Regression

參考文獻

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Bergstrand, Jeffrey. 1985. “The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 67 (3): 474–81.

Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. 1989. “The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition, and the Factor-Proportions Theory in International Trade.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 71 (1): 143–53.

Calvo-Pardo, Hector, Caroline Freund, and Emanuel Ornelas. 2009. “The ASEAN Free Trade Agreement: Impact on Trade Flows and External Trade Barriers.” LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 28602. London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

Campbell, Douglas L. July 2010. “History, Culture, and Trade: A Dynamic Gravity Approach.” MPRA Paper.