人民幣匯率變動對中美國際貿易收支之影響

The Variation of RMB Exchange Rate: The Influence to U.S. and China in International Trade.

簡嘉男(Chia-Nan Chien)

指導教授 ： 郭建中 ； 范錦明

淡江大學/國際研究學院/中國大陸研究所碩士班/碩士(2012年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2012.00958

摘要

自2001年中國加入WTO以來，中國與美國經貿關係不斷深化，特別是中美貿易的增長。2000年中國對美國貿易順差僅為297.41億美元，2010年時中國對美貿易順差已經達到1812.66億美元。中美貿易不平衡使得兩國的貿易摩擦加劇，貿易不平衡的問題成為美國提出貿易制裁與貿易談判的條件，而其中最被關注的就是人民幣匯率議題。美國國會與民間普遍認為中國政府採取的人民幣匯率政策是導致中美之間巨大貿易差額主要原因，使得人民幣升值的國際壓力也越來越大。然而，中國政府是否操縱人民幣匯率?人民幣匯率是否低估?以及中美巨大貿易差額是否為人民幣低估所造成的?這都是本研究所思考的方向。
本研究試圖藉由人民幣匯率政策的演變了解人民幣匯率決定機制的脈絡，進一步探討影響人民匯率政策的選擇因素，接著研究、分析中美國際貿易收支失衡的來源以及人民幣匯率變動對中美國際貿易收支的影響。
研究中發現，中國政府的匯率政策長期以來配合中國對外貿易政策以及中國國內經濟發展需求，也就是說，中國利用匯率政策來配合貿易政策。這對於由計畫經濟向市場經濟轉變的中國來說，是一種有利自身經濟發展的作法。然而研究顯示，人民幣匯率升值無法有效改善中美巨額貿易逆差，中美巨大貿易逆差的根源是由於中國具有低廉的勞動力，使得中國製造的勞力密集型產品具有價格優勢，此與刻意操縱匯率造成巨大貿易差額的說法必須有所區隔。即使人民幣匯率大幅升值也無法扭轉美國產業結構已經改變的事實，製造訂單仍會轉移到成本較低廉的國家，無助於改善美國自身貿易逆差。

關鍵字

人民幣 ； 人民幣升值 ； 匯率形成機制 ； 中美貿易不平衡 ； 人民幣匯率政策

並列摘要

Since China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, U.S.-China economic and trade relations was further deepened. The China trade surplus with the United States was $27.741 billion in 2000, but the surplus in 2010 was $18.12 billion. Sino-US trade imbalance resulting in heightened trade frictions, the trade imbalance problem has become terms of trade negotiation and employing trade sanction by U.S., and the focus of attention is RMB exchange rate. The U.S. Congress and public opinion believes that the main reason of huge trade surplus is RMB exchange rate, that pressure for RMB to appreciate is further rising. However, Is China a currency manipulator? Is the RMB undervalued? And most important, does the trade imbalance has caused by RMB exchange rate?
According to research, China’s exchange rate policy works in coordination with foreign trade policy and internal economic demand development in the long-term. That was an advantage of China’s economic development during the transit of planned economy to market economy. However, Study Shows that revaluation of the RMB will not improve the trade surplus well. The huge trade surplus has caused by cheap labor power in China that would making labor-intensive products have price advantage, it should be different with manipulation of the exchange rates. In fact, The U.S. industrial structure will not changed back even if RMB appreciate by a wide. That will not improve the trade deficit; the order of products will transfer to the other countries that have cheap labor power.

並列關鍵字

RMB ； RMB appreciate ； Sino-US trade imbalance ； RMB exchange rate policy ； exchange rate formation mechanism

參考文獻

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