中共十六大後對臺政策之研究

The study on Beijing’s policy toward Taiwan after the 16th Party Congress

索潔(Chieh, Suo)

指導教授 ： 趙春山

淡江大學/國際研究學院/中國大陸研究所碩士在職專班/碩士(2011年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2011.00833

摘要

自2002年11月胡錦濤從江澤民手中接任「總書記」至2004年9月接掌「中央軍委會主席」，胡錦濤正式地成為中共第四代集國家、軍事、對臺決策的領導人。2006年1月，中共方面宣稱不再紀念「江八點」，對臺政策則以「新胡四點」為主要政策依據，2008年底其更進一步發表「胡六點」，更顯示出胡錦濤在權力逐步穩固下，非但主導中共對臺政策，在其靈活兩手策略、軟硬兼施的運作下，更成為主導兩岸關係發展的關鍵人物。
然而，自十六大以來胡錦濤主政時期，中共對臺政策究竟延續過去領導人的政策戰略與策略，亦或是因為領導人的更迭，領導人的風格影響對臺政策的戰略與策略作為成為學界討論重點。是故，本文企圖延續學界的討論，以David Easton的系統理論作研究框架，對十六大後中共對臺政策之作為進行分析，試先瞭解中共歷代領導人對臺政策思維，並針對十六大後的政策決策環境背景，即是美國環境、臺灣政經情勢與中共內部環境進行分析。同時，從胡錦濤對臺重要宣示、報告與法令，以及策略性行為的分析，以瞭解胡錦濤在掌控多方資源後，其對臺戰略思維與策略行為如何，以判斷其對臺的思維是否跳脫過去中共領導人的傳統格局。
本文研究結果如同先前研究假設，十六大以來胡錦濤的逐步修正對臺政策戰略與策略行為，在胡錦濤掌控權力後其處理兩岸問題的思維與方法展現攻、守兼具，且具彈性對臺戰略與策略作為。

關鍵字

胡錦濤 ； 戰術與戰略 ； 北京對臺政策

並列摘要

Since November 2002, Hu Jintao has been in charge of the president of the Chinese Communist party from Jiang Zemin, and has been the chairman of the Central Armed Force Commission since September 2004. Hu Jintao officially became the Chinese Communist Party’s fourth national leader who is in charge of the country, the military, and the policy-making. In January 2006, the Chinese Communist Party declared that instead of commemorating the Jiang’s eight-point formula", “the Hu’s new 4-point formula” is the guidelines of China's Taiwan Policy. In December 2008, Hu declared a new opinion which was called “the Hu’s 6-point formula”, demonstrating that Hu Jintao has stabilized the power and has started to lead decision-making of Taiwan Policy. Since then, Hu had to deal with the Taiwan affairs in his two-face, using both persuasion and threats under the operation of Taiwan Policy, demonstrating that he is not only the leader of Chinese Communist Party but also the essential role who leads the cross-strait relations’ development.
However, after Hu became the president of the party after the 16th Party Congress, whether Beijing’s policy toward Taiwan will continue the strategies and tactics of Hu’s predecessors became a focal point. This thesis attempted to continue this debate. The research framework of this thesis was to use the system theory of David Easton. The thesis contains three parts to analyze the Beijing’s policy toward Taiwan after the 16th Party Congress. First the thought of Beijing’s Taiwan policy of Hu’s predecessors was analyzed; Second the policy environment, including the politic and economics situation of USA, Taiwan and China was documented. Finally, the Hu’s important declares, political report of the 17th Party Congress and its legal rule was discussed.
This thesis proves Hu revises strategies and tactics of Beijing’s policy toward Taiwan after the 16th Party Congress step by step. When Hu controlized all resources from the state, the party, and the military, he appears confident to enforce his thought on Taiwan policy.

並列關鍵字

Hu Jintao ； strategy and tactic ； Beijing’s policy toward Taiwan

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