美國發表《中國白皮書》之決策過程

The Decision Making Process of China White Paper

賴亞欣(Ya-Shin Lai)

指導教授 ： 陳一新

淡江大學/國際研究學院/美國研究所碩士班/碩士(2009年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2009.00900

摘要

1949年8月5日，美國政府發表通稱《中國白皮書》之《美國與中國關係1944-1949》。白皮書將「失去中國」的責任歸咎於蔣介石政府的腐敗與不得民心，並指出儘管國民政府獲得美國大量的軍事與經濟援助，國府仍輸掉了中國大陸。杜魯門總統在8月4日的記者會上表示，發表白皮書的目的是要確保中國政策在民眾知悉美中關係的前提下做出。杜魯門總統指出，美國政府在美中關係中的角色受到許多誤傳、扭曲與誤解。這些誤會的產生，正是因為政府不願對外公開美中關係的實情。所以，唯有對外公開美中關係，才能使民眾與國會議員知悉美中關係的實情，作為遠東外交政策制定的基礎。
本論文以艾里遜所提出的三種決策模式，即理性行為模式、組織行為模式以及政府政治模式作為理論架構。希望藉由三種決策模式的引導，更清楚地呈現美國發表中國白皮書的決策過程。經過理性行為模式之分析，本論文發現，美國政府為同時達到說服國會和民眾接受與國府劃清界線的政策，以及避免行政部門與國會在中國議題上的對立波及歐洲軍事援助計畫，所以決心儘快發表白皮書。經過組織行為模式之分析，本論文發現，由於白皮書團隊受到組織文化與組織次文化的影響，以及轉呈信受到組織標準作業程序的影響，所以中國白皮書的執行成果無法達到當初公正客觀的預期。經過政府政治模式的分析，本論文發現，國務卿艾奇遜受惠於杜魯門的決策風格、與杜魯門單獨會面的管道以及與杜魯門良好的私人關係，所以享有許多議價優勢。這些優勢使艾奇遜在白皮書一事上，不需與其他參與者妥協便能爭取到杜魯門總統的支持。
經過以上三種決策模式的分析，本論文可以更完整地解釋美國政府發表中國白皮書的決策過程。白皮書「必須」對外發表，是因為行政部門相信唯有如此，才能取得國會與民眾對對華政策的支持。白皮書要「儘快」發表，是因為行政部門希望避免中國議題的對立波及歐洲軍事援助計畫。而白皮書最後「能夠」對外發表，是因為艾奇遜善用議價優勢，取得杜魯門的支持。至於白皮書為何在「8月5日」發表，則是因為艾奇遜必須顧及底下官員的質疑，等到司徒雷登大使離華之後才對外發表。而白皮書「未能達到」預期的目標，就是因為白皮書之編寫過程受到組織文化與標準作業程序的影響，無法既公正又客觀地分析事實。

關鍵字

中國白皮書 ； 決策理論 ； 艾奇遜 ； 中國幫 ； 美中關係 ； 杜魯門

並列摘要

United States government issued United States Relations with China with Special Reference to the Period 1944-1949, commonly known as China White Paper, on August 5, 1949. The China White Paper placed the responsibility of loss of China on the corrupt and unpopular government of Chiang Kai-Shek, emphasizing that the Nationalists lost the mainland even though they received enormous American military and economic aid. On the press conference of August 4, President Truman indicated that the purpose in releasing the China White Paper is to insure that the policy toward China shall be based on informed and intelligent public opinion. President Truman pointed out that the role of American government in its relations with China had been subject to considerate misrepresentation, distortion, and misunderstanding. Those attitudes arouse because the government was reluctant to reveal certain facts relating to United States-China relations. Therefore, revealing those facts was the only way that the public and their representatives in Congress could have the understanding necessary to the sound evolution of the foreign policy in the Far East.
The author will apply three models of decision-making theory, namely the rational actor model, the organizational behavior model, and the governmental politics model, to analyze the decision-making process of China White Paper. Under the guidance of rational actor model, the thesis finds that United States government decided to release the China White Paper as soon as possible in order to convince the Congress and the public of the correctness of the policy to abandon the Nationalists, and simultaneously avoid the hostility between the administration and the Congress in China issue spreading to European Military Assistance Programs. Under the guidance of organizational behavior model, the thesis finds that the China White Paper could not reach the standard of fairness and objectivity because the writing team was under the influence of organizational culture and subculture, and the Letter of Transmittal was
adversely affected by the standard operating procedures. Under the guidance of governmental politics model, the thesis finds that Secretary of State Acheson enjoyed three bargaining advantages which were drawn from the decision-making style of President Truman, the access to meet the President alone, and the cozy relationship with Truman. These advantages enabled Acheson to obtain Truman’s support without making any concessions to other participants.
Applying the three decision-making models, the thesis can display the decision-making process of China White Paper more completely. The China White Paper “had to” be released because the government believed it was the only way to win over the Congress and the public. The China White Paper should release “as soon as possible” because the administration wanted to prevent the hostility in China issues from extending to the Military Assistance Programs. The China White Paper “did” release because Acheson wisely use his bargaining advantages to gain the support of President Truman. The China White Paper was released “on August 5” because Acheson had to give consideration to the opposition of his subordinates, awaiting the departure of Ambassador Stuart from China. The China White Paper “could not achieve its expected goal” because the organizational culture exercised influence on the writing team and the standard operating procedures affected the outcome of the Letter of Transmittal.

並列關鍵字

China White Paper ； Decision-making theory ； Dean Acheson ； China bloc ； United States Relations with China ； Harry Truman

參考文獻

劉傳暘。〈再論艾奇遜的對華態度〉。《中國歷史學會史學集刊》，37期 (民94年7月)：頁267-86。

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