論中共「十八大」後的對臺政策與兩岸關係

The Study of PRC’s Taiwan Policy and Cross-Strait Relations after 18th CPC National Congress

沙帥(Shuai Sha)

指導教授 ： 潘錫堂

共同指導教授 ： 龔春生

淡江大學/國際研究學院/中國大陸研究所碩士班/碩士(2016年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2016.00776

摘要

2012年中共「十八大」召開後，以習近平為首的領導集體全面執政，有別於過去領導人，習近平受其經歷影響，其更加重視「制度化」、「法治化」，特別是在對臺事務上有著更豐富的經驗。習近平主政下的對臺政策，除延續過去中共所立下的一貫的立場及原則，第一任期大抵呈現「胡規習隨」，惟在對臺的策略上亦有不同之側重。

過去，臺灣一直是為中(共)美國際角力下的籌碼，特別是自習近平上任後，南海局勢與「再平衡」政策的升溫，中(共)美軍事和經濟關係複雜化，產生了區域情勢的諸多緊張。2016年底美國即將選出新任領導人，勢必將對此一形勢帶來更多變數，臺灣應如何把握兩強相爭下的機遇，在兩岸乃至於三邊關係關係中尋找突破。

2008年兩岸破冰後，雙方開啟良性互動，並解決了多項事務性問題。2014年底臺灣發生「太陽花學運」，學運激化了青年對兩岸事務的高度重視，亦是為造成中共近年調整對臺交往策略的重要因素。2016年民進黨蔡英文當選我國總統，其雖未承認過去兩岸間的政治基礎，但宣示將會在憲法、以及既有基礎上持續推動兩岸關係展現狀，惟中共認為「九二共識」是雙方的共同基礎，沒有「九二共識」將會導致協商中斷，「九二共識」亦從「議題」轉變成為「前提」，蔡政府能否把握兩岸發展的新穎性，進而創造新形勢下的新基礎，是為兩岸關係能否延續過去的良性互動，抑或是回到「平行線」走向「冷和平」的關鍵。

關鍵字

兩岸關係 ； 九二共識 ； 十八大 ； 一個中國 ； 習近平

並列摘要

In 2012, the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China was convened. The group led by Jinping Xi came into power. Different from previous leaders, due to the influences of his past experiences, Xi paid more attention to “systemization” and “legalization”. He has especially rich experiences in Taiwan related affairs. The Taiwan policies with Xi in charge continued the consistent position and principles of the party in the past. During his first term of office, Xi mainly followed Hu’s rules. However, the special emphases in the Taiwan policies were different.

In the past, Taiwan had been China’s bargaining chip with the US. Especially, after Xi took office, the situation in South China Sea intensified due to the “rebalance” strategy and the complexity of the military and economical relationships between China and the US had led to a lot of tense regional situations. By the end of 2016, there will be a new leader elected in the US. The result will definitely cause a lot of variable factors in this regard. How can Taiwan grasp this opportunity under the fierce contest between these evenly matched powerful nationals and make breakthroughs in the cross-strait relation or even the trilateral relationship?

In 2008, after the ice between China and Taiwan was broken, positive interactions have begun and many issues have been resolved. In the end of 2014, the Sunflower Movement began. This student movement caused the youth paying more attention to cross-strait affairs. It is also an important factor behind China’s adjustments of Taiwan policies in the recent years. In 2016, Ing-Wen Tsai from the Democratic Progressive Party was elected as the president of Taiwan. Although she did not recognize the previous political foundations between China and Taiwan, she declared that she will continue to maintain the cross-strait relation in terms of constitution and existing foundations. Yet, the Communist Party of China believes that the “1992 Consensus” is the common basis for both sides. Without it, there will be no consultation. The “1992 Consensus” has turned from an “issue” to a “premise”. Whether the Tsai government can make good use of the fresh atmosphere of cross-strait development and further create a new basis for the new situation is the key to whether the previous positive interactions can continue or the road the two countries take will be two parallel lines and “cold peace” will follow.

並列關鍵字

Cross-Strait Relations ； 1992 Consensus ； 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China ； One-China Policy ； Xi Jinping

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