在新市鎮開發過程,常見衍生一體兩面之問題,其一為交通系統無法負荷其計畫人口規模衍生之交通需求;其二為受限交通系統服務績效,影響人口遷入意願,導致開發不如預期。政府對此交通問題常採事後補救措施,但交通系統之建置需大量時間及經費,且亦受限於土地開發及環境限制運輸系統之實際可行方案,無法緩解交通壅塞現象。因此,在新市鎮開發計畫內訂定適當的人口規模,使其衍生之聯外交通需求不超過聯外交通系統之負荷為一重要課題。甚且過去新市鎮人口開發規模多基於可用土地面積及建築容積率訂定,而並未於開發計畫完整評估交通系統之容受力。 本研究針對衛星型新市鎮之聯外交通問題,基於聯外交通系統容量限制開發區域人口規模之概念,提出一逆向運輸規劃程序探討新市鎮聯外交通系統之人口容受力求得新市鎮人口規模。 本研究選擇淡海新市鎮做為研究範例,考量聯外交通系統路網變更、聯外道路服務水準等,分別設計8個情境組合,進行分析並探討對於人口容受力之影響。結果對應之人口規模在2.6~10萬人之間,與原始官方既定淡海新市鎮欲開發人口規模有近20萬人之差異,顯示既有計畫可能高估可開發人口規模。 本研究藉由實證分析內容驗證逆向運輸規劃分析之程序具實務可操作性,且可提供相關新市鎮規劃單位在評估人口規模方面參考,避免交通系統與新市鎮開發人口規模失衡以及其衍生之問題。
There were two-sided commonly seen problems during the development of a new town. The one was that the associated transportation system can not provide adequate service level to the growing travel demand; on the other hand, the new town development was seriously compromised by the poor transportation performance. The afterward remedy by the planning authority to improve transportation system was often not effective due to the complex issues of budget and time constraints as well as those of environmental impacts and land acquisitions. It is then obvious that an adequate population scale should be addressed carefully in a new town plan with respect to the carrying capacity by the associated transportation system potentials. This issue was overlooked conventionally due to the unilateral perspective of building codes by urban design authority. This study proposed a reverse transportation planning procedure to explore the Population Carrying Capacity in response to the connecting transportation system for a new town plan. The Dan-Hai new town plan was selected as a demonstrative case study. Taking into considerations of developing potential of the associated connecting transportation system, along with the designated levels of service, eight transportation scenarios were defined and population carrying capacities were analyzed accordingly. The results showed that there were significant differences between originally planned population carrying capacity of Dan-Hai new town and the outputs from the analysis by considering connecting transportation system performance under various scenarios. The study has demonstrated successfully the empirical operability of the proposed process and the results may suggest that the proposed methodology can be applied to generate benchmarks for the urban planning authority to establish a more reasonable and achievable population scale for a new town plan.
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