民進黨政府的大陸政策困境 （2000-2008年）

DPP Government's Dilemma on the Mainland China Policy（2000-2008）

徐維憲(WEI-HSIEN HSU)

指導教授 ： 曾復生

淡江大學/國際研究學院/國際事務與戰略研究所碩士在職專班/碩士(2010年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2010.00979

摘要

中文摘要
在全球化開放經濟體系下，兩岸定位不再像二三十年前只是政治上的口號問題，現在是已經對國計民生均有重大影響。民進黨的大陸政策自創黨以來之骨幹即是「堅決維護台灣實質獨立主權，不承認有所謂九二共識與接受一中原則，堅持在不預設任何條件的前提下展開兩岸對話與談判」，這樣的理念在政黨輪替後，如何策略牽動兩岸關係情勢的變化，影響經貿的交流？其八年任內在大陸政策上有何收穫？兩岸關係有何變化？其困境為何？實值得研究者深入探討。

歸納來說，影響陳水扁及民進黨政府大率政策的主要三個要素包括：國內政治環境、國際政治環境與民進黨黨內路線競爭等，因此本研究從上述三個影響因素分別進行探討，企圖找出民進黨執政時期大陸政策策略所面臨的困境，作為這八年執政在兩岸關係上的成果檢討以及政府未來訂定大陸政策之參考。

透過歷史分析途徑，本研究發現民進黨大陸政策的制定，因兩岸領導者意識型態截然不同，只能採取政治模糊的策略，以實質交流來緩步開啟兩岸協商，但進展極為有限，以經濟影響政策的企圖在短期內很難達成。而全球化以及反恐取代反共等國際因素的改變，加上台灣內部本身的政黨政治鬥爭、派系糾葛及民眾意識型態的不明確，也往往造成施政上的困擾，以致於整體政策方向定位在統獨的政治光譜上擺盪。中共當局也失去對陳水扁及民進黨政府的觀察耐心，從最早的戰略性模糊，到後期強調台灣主權的獨立自主，都難以得到中共的善意回應，中共態度日漸轉趨強硬，對於兩岸協商大門更加緊閉。
經濟層面對於民進黨執政測的大陸政策制定影響極深，尤其在全球化加遽的情形下，兩岸經濟均勢逐漸傾斜，不論是政績考量或情勢壓力，陳水扁及民進黨政府在大陸的實質交流政策上作出很多改革，只是從執政前期的「積極開放、有效管理」轉為後期的「積極管理、有效開放」，兩岸的經貿交流雖較戒嚴或「戒急用忍」時期來得有進展，但是究竟是要大膽西進還是強本西進，其實民進黨政府內部也還未有堅強的共識，因此成效亦有限。

總合來說，民進黨大陸政策的困境雖不能說是民進黨作為一個本土政黨的「原罪」，但強調台獨的色彩讓兩岸高層先天互信感就較低，加上國際大環境上中共的強勢，美國的轉向，過去八年民進黨當局面對錯綜複雜的兩岸問題，在無奈的被動接受對岸統戰，或者強勢的反抗之外，似乎還找不出一條可行的新道路。未來兩岸關係如何能夠不再局限於意識型態及軍事的對抗，而是逐步延伸到政治、經濟、科技、文化、環境領域各方面，實是未來不論哪一個政黨執政，都必須要深切去思考的重要議題。

關鍵字

民進黨 ； 大陸政策

並列摘要

Abstract

Under global open economic environment, the relationship between China & Taiwan has become a important role in national welfare & people’s livelihood. Since the establishment of DDP(Democratic Progressive Party), its mainstay of China policy is always “ Firmly defend the independent sovereignty of Taiwan . Do not admit or accept the 92’ common consensus and One China concept. Only under the presupposition--without any limit conditional terms for Taiwan , then to start two-sides talking and negotiation”. After the political party transition , how do the basic principals influence the relationships and economic interactions between China & Taiwan ?What is the changes, gains and difficulties in the DDP’s 8 years ?

In summary, the 3 key factors which influence CSB (Chen Shuei-bian) DDP policy are : Domestic political environment , international political environment and DDP internal competitions. This research will focus on the above 3 factors and try to find out the difficulties of DDP’s China policy in the 8 years.

Through historical analysis, this research finds out that due to the leaders of China & Taiwan has totally different ideology, DDP’s China policy can only adapt a political vague policy . DDP has to do actual interactions to replace vague policy and develop negotiations slowly. However , the development is quite limited , it’s hard to impact political policy by economic power. Besides, due to the raise of globalization ,
anti-terrorism, unclear of Taiwan public’s ideology and the internal party completion in Taiwan, DDP can’t define its total strategy clearly and swing between united and independent. PRC (People Republic of China) also lost the patient to observe DDP & CSB . DDP’s policy , no matter the early vague strategy to latest policy : to stress the independent sovereignty of Taiwan , all can’t get the friendly response from PRC government (People Republic of China). PRC’s attitude has become more tough and the negotiation development has shut down.
Economics has played an key factor in DDP’s China policy, especially under the globalization environment and economic changes between Taiwan & China. No matter is from political performance or public pressure , CSB & DDP government has contributed innovations in actual interaction policy with China. DDP’s policy has transformed from “ Positive Open . Effective Management” to “Positive Management . Effective Open” . The interactions between China & Taiwan has big improvement compare to the early strict political period. However , DDP Government still do not have a strong common consensus about the attitude : to be aggressive or conservative ? And hence the effects of DDP policy is only limited.

In summary , the difficulties DDP has trapped in China policy , is not totally from its original sin – as an biggest local political party . Instead , it’s due to DDP overstress of Taiwan independent sovereignty, it lower the trust between high level leaders between China & Taiwan. Besides, the effects of international political environment – China dominate situation and USA turn to against Taiwan also has big impacts. In the past 8 years , facing the complicated issues between China & Taiwan , DDP government either accepted passively , or resist aggressively . DDP seems to have no other new way to progress. However , no matter which political party will run the government , this will be the main issue for future authority to think how to improve & extend the relationship from ideology & military to politics , economics, technology , culture and environment.

並列關鍵字

Democratic Progressive Party ； China policy

參考文獻

楊永明，「台灣民主化與台灣安全保障」，台灣民主季刊，第1卷第3期，頁11。

宋學文，1998，「議題聯結與兩岸關係之研究」，中國大陸研究，第37 卷，第2期，頁21-35。

Jeffrey A.Bader, Richard C. Bush Ⅲ, 2007, Contending with the Rise of China, Washington, D.C.：The Brookings Institution, p1-15.

李慶雄，2001，中華民國如何成為國家，台北：前衛，頁40-41。

Roger Cliff, Mark Burles, Michael S. Chase, Derek Eaton, Kevin L. Pollpeter, 2007, Entering the Dragon’s Lair: Chinese Antiaccess Strategies and Their Implications for the United States, RAND.