人民幣國際化與東亞國家貿易之關聯性研究

A Study of the Correlation between RMB Internationalization and East Asian Exports

余世昌(Shih-Chang Yu)

指導教授 ： 李沃牆

淡江大學/商管學院/財務金融學系博士班/博士(2018年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2018.00900

摘要

鑑於近年中國大陸積極推動人民幣國際化，人民幣在國際貨幣體系重要性日增，尤其對東亞國家匯率及其出口之影響為甚。基此，本論文主要分為三個部分，一為分析影響人民幣國際化的主要因素；二為研究人民幣匯率波動與東亞國家匯率波動的關聯性；三為探討人民幣匯率波動與東亞國家對中國大陸貿易的關聯性。第一、二部份運用OLS進行迴歸分析，探討影響人民幣國際化主要因素，以及人民幣匯率與東亞國家匯率的關聯性；第三部份則使用Panel Data Model進行實證分析，分析人民幣國際化與東亞國家對中國大陸出口之關聯性。
本文實證結果顯示，1.在人民幣國際化部份，人民幣國際化與人民幣匯率波動及開放人民幣兌換程度呈現顯著正相關，意味中國大陸欲進一步強化人民幣國際化，應持續擴大人民幣對外開放程度。2.人民幣匯率與東亞國家匯率關聯性部份顯示人民幣匯率波動與東亞國家匯率波動多呈現正相關，其中僅越南盾、泰國銖及印尼盾在特定期間因非經濟因素呈現負向關係，反映人民幣國際化不僅促使人民幣升值，亦帶動東亞國家貨幣升值。3.人民幣匯率波動與東亞國家對中國大陸出口關聯性部份，結果顯示人民幣升值或東亞國家貨幣貶值，均有助東亞國家對中國大陸出口，合乎一般理論。同時並顯示東亞國家為避免匯率造成貿易損失，形成匯率走勢趨同特性。
綜觀總體實證結果，中國大陸為推動人民幣國際化，人民幣匯率逐漸朝向市場化發展。由於東亞國家與中國大陸經貿關係密切，人民幣匯率波動與東亞國家匯率波動，以及與東亞國家對中國大陸出口之關聯性將更趨明顯。而此趨勢攸關我國在東亞地區之經貿布局及整體經濟發展，後續可再進行更為深入之分析研究。

關鍵字

人民幣國際化 ； 人民幣匯率改革 ； 匯率波動 ； 外匯儲備 ； 管理浮動匯率 ； 關聯性分析

並列摘要

In recent years, the attempt of Chinese government in taking RMB toward internationalization has intensified, hence the importance of RMB in the international monetary system has escalated, and its impacts have particularly affected the exportation and exchange rates of currency of East Asian economies. Of the above statement, the study is sectioned into three parts; the first part is to analyze the major factors which have affected RMB internationalization, the second part is to study the correlation between RMB exchange rate fluctuation and exchange rate fluctuations of East Asian economies, and the third part is to analyze the correlation between RMB exchange rate fluctuation and Exports from East Asian economies to Mainland China. The OLS was used to conduct regression analysis on the first and second part, and the third part conducts Panel Data regression to perform empirical analyses.
From the Empirical Analysis results, it indicates the following; 1) On part of RMB internationalization, a positive correlation exists between the internationalization of RMB and the RMB exchange rate, as well as the extent of the availability of exchanging RMB. This infers that as Mainland China strives to strengthen its currency, RMB, it should continue to increase the availability of RMB to the world. 2) With regards to the exchange rate between RMB and the currency used by other countries in East Asian, a positive correlation is found between RMB and the currency officialized by East Asian countries in currency fluctuation; however, among all of the currency from the countries in East Asian, the Dong from Vietnam, the Baht from Thailand and the Rupiah from Indonesia present a negative correlation with no economic factor involved in a particular period. This shows the internationalization of RMB has not only appreciated its currency, but also the currency in East Asia region. 3) With respect to the impact on the exportation to Mainland China from East Asian countries in relation to the fluctuation of RMB, the result indicates that the appreciation of RMB or the depreciation of the currency in East Asian regions facilitates the exportation to Mainland China from East Asian countries. This conforms to the general theory. In the meantime, it is consistent with the trend of the exchange rate among East Asian countries to avoid any trade losses caused by exchange rate fluctuations.
Based on the overall result of this study, the purpose for the internationalization of RMB is that the Chinese government has gradually developed the exchange rate of RMB towards a market-oriented approach. Since there is a close trading relationship between Mainland China and the countries in East Asian, a more significant correlation between RMB and the currency officialized by East Asian countries in currency fluctuation is found, as well as in the exportation to Mainland China from the East Asian region. This has created a great concern for economic allocation and development of Taiwan in the East Asian region. It can be further studied and analyzed in the future.

並列關鍵字

RMB Internationalization ； RMB Exchange Rate Reform ； exchange rate fluctuations ； Foreign Exchange Reserves ； Managed floating exchange rate ； Exchange rate ； Correlation analysis

參考文獻

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