中國大陸房價、所得與CPI關係之實證檢驗

A Study on House Price, Income, and CPI: Empirical Evidence from China

鍾茹欣(Ju-Hsin Chung)

指導教授 ： 洪鳴丰

淡江大學/商學院/產業經濟學系碩士班/碩士(2011年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2011.01010

摘要

住房需求不只是滿足生活所提供的服務，另一方面，住房資產也常被視為具保值與投資功能的耐久財。中國大陸自1998年住房改革後，房地產業已然成為中國經濟發展中最為活躍行業之一。而中國房市急速的發展與房價的連年漲勢，各界學者紛紛對其房價的合理性抱持質疑的態度，因此房價的影響因素著實成為關注焦點。一般認為，房價變動和一國的經濟成長與通貨膨脹有關，故本文進行中國大陸房價、所得與CPI關係的實證檢驗。不同於以往文獻，在資料上，本文使用中國大陸中大城市而非省份或全國的追蹤資料進行分析，以改善中國大陸城鄉差距巨大易造成的資料偏誤問題，以及小樣本分析易產生的估計偏誤問題；我們並將中國大陸官方統計資料作適當的變數處理與序列轉換，以獲取正確的時間序列資料進行分析。研究樣本為中國35個中大城市自1998年第一季至2007年第四季的資料。本文進一步運用追蹤資料向量自我迴歸（Panel Vector Autoregressions）的計量方法進行實證估計，主要實證結果如下：
一、中國城市的房價、所得與CPI三者間，所得變數相對於房價與CPI而言，是較為外生的變數。
二、內陸地區城市的房價波動受所得因素影響最大，城市居民收入的成長，造成住房需求變動，進而對房價產生影響。沿海地區城市的房價波動則以前期房價為其主要因素，可見近幾年來，投資者與投機客對房市的炒作，以及對房價的預期效果，是促使沿海地區房價不斷攀升的主因。
三、內陸地區城市的物價變動受所得變動影響最深，該區城市的經濟成長是促使其物價攀升的主要原因。長期來看，沿海地區城市物價變動的主因則是房價變動，因此中國政府若欲透過房價調控來抑制物價過於膨脹，其房價政策應針對沿海地區執行較能平抑物價。

關鍵字

房價 ； 所得 ； 消費者物價指數 ； 追蹤資料向量自我迴歸模型

並列摘要

Since China's housing reformation in 1998, the real estate has become one of the most active industries in China. Its rapid development and increasing house prices have resulted in the critique of the reasonableness of housing price, however. The study on what factors influencing the house prices becomes a main issue. In this thesis, we conduct the research regarding the relationship among house price, income, and CPI in China. There are some contributions to the literature. In the aspect of data manipulation, we apply the city-level data instead of province- or nation-level data. By so doing, we prevent the measurement error resulted from the big rural-urban disparity in China. We also deal with data appropriately to obtain the correct time series data for analysis. In addition, the data used in this study contains 35 Chinese cities for the period of time from 1998Q1 to 2007Q4. The form of panel data could improve the estimate bias of using small samples. We then use the panel vector autoregressive method to estimate. The main findings of this research are as follows:
1. Among the three variables of urban housing price, income, and CPI in China, income variable is the most exogenous one.
2. In the inland cities, the income factor affects the housing price mostly. Urban income growth will cause the change of housing demand, and thus brings an impact on prices. In the coastal cities, previous housing price fluctuations are the main factors that affect the housing price. The speculation in housing market and the expected effect on house prices have caused housing price kept arising in the past few years.
3. The income influences the commodity price volatility mostly in inland cities. The city's economic growth promotes the rise of CPI. In the coastal cities, however, it is the housing price that mainly influences the commodity price volatility. Therefore, if the China government wants to curb the over-inflated commodity prices through housing price regulation, it should focus the implementation of this policy on coastal areas much more.

並列關鍵字

HousePrice ； Income ； CPI ； PVARModel

參考文獻

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