台灣住宅用電需求函數估計-季節性與動態分析

The Estimation of Residential Electricity Demand in Taiwan: Seasonality and Dynamic Panel Data Analysis

張永鴻(Yung-Hung Chang)

指導教授 ： 洪鳴丰

淡江大學/商管學院/產業經濟學系碩士班/碩士(2013年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2013.01171

摘要

本文以系統性一般化動差法(System Generalized Method of Moment,簡稱System GMM)，針對臺灣地區各縣市住宅季節性用電需求進行實證探討。估計樣本為臺灣地區19縣市於2007年1月至2011年12月之平衡追蹤資料，模型中考慮之被解釋變數為縣市每戶平均用電量，解釋變數為電價、所得、液化石油氣價格、氣候變數、家戶特徵變數、季節暨節電政策等變數，其主要實證結果如下：
一、前期用電量調整速度：不論於夏月或非夏月情況下，住宅用電量均受到過去前四期用電行為影響，此原因為家戶無法即時汰換耗電之電器用品，或住宅過去用電習慣養成，無法即時改變用電習性。
二、價格彈性探討：住宅用電量受夏月用電費率調漲，使用電量減少。
三、交叉彈性探討：非夏月電價較低，液化石油氣價格上漲，民眾便使用電力來替代。在夏月電價高昂，此時液化石油氣的價格上漲，民眾受預算壓縮減少電力使用。
四、所得彈性方面探討：顯示電力屬於民生必需品，家戶對其依賴度高。
五、溫度及濕度：溫度與預期有所差異，建議未來研究者以最高溫度日數及最低溫度日數，作為溫度代理變數探討。

關鍵字

住宅用電需求 ； 電力需求彈性 ； 季節性因素 ； 能源消費 ； 動態追蹤資料模型

並列摘要

This article adopts the System Generalized Method of Moments to discuss the residential electricity of demand in Taiwan. This analysis has been performed by using a balanced panel data set of 19 countries in Taiwan for the period from January 2007 to December 2011.
The main findings are as follows:
1. The electricity consumption of the residential is effected by the behavior of the former four period of electricity consumption.This might be resulted from the situations that the electrical appliances that are consuming much power can’t be replaced immediately, or the household can’t change the electricity-using habit right now.
2. Households consume electricity by price increase in summer months. Electricity consumption reduction.
3.In non-summer months, gas and electricity are instead. In summer months, gas and electricity are substitute.
4.Electricity is a necessity and the households depend on it very much.
5.The result of temperature is inconsistent with the expectation better indicators as weather such as Heating Degree Days(HDD) are suggested to be applied for the better research.

並列關鍵字

Residential electricity demand ； Price elasticity ； Seasonality ； Energy consumption ； Dynamic Panel Data Model

參考文獻

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